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BTC The CLARITY bill received an important boost, but new setbacks threatened its prospects for passage in 2026.
The bill received a potentially important boost before it faced a full Senate vote for the first time (originally scheduled for September 15). However, another scheduling setback further threatens its possibility of becoming law this year.
The National Sheriff's Association changes position
Fortunately, the National Sheriff's Association (NSA) has shifted its attitude towards this landmark cryptocurrency market structure bill, from opposition to neutrality. Previously, the association had raised concerns that the bill could make it more difficult for authorities to crack down on illegal financial activities involving digital assets.
In a filing to the U.S. Senate, the agency said that given the complexity of the legislation and the issues still under negotiation, it would be appropriate to step back and let the legislative process continue. The change is crucial because law enforcement concerns have become a major obstacle for some Senate Democrats, whose votes will determine whether the bill can move forward.
Although the NSA's move does not mean it now supports the legislation, its shift from opposition to neutrality removes a source of pressure on senators considering voting to advance the bill. In essence, it removes another potential obstacle and helps attract the Democratic support the bill needs when it reaches the full Senate for a vote later this month.
Recall that Senate Majority Leader John Thune submitted a closed-debate motion as early as early as August to advance H.R. Bill 3633 to allow the Senate to vote on the bill after recess. The motion requires the support of 60 senators to pass, and it is not the CLARITY bill itself that passes, but rather limits debate time on the motion to advance the bill, thereby pushing the bill into formal Senate review. Republicans hold 53 seats, which means that if the conference votes unanimously, it must have the support of Democrats or independents.
New setbacks
House Republican leaders canceled voting sessions for the weeks of September 21 and September 28, removing eight legislative days from the calendar. In addition, the House is scheduled to leave Washington on September 17, just two days after the Senate's first procedural vote. The new schedule leaves lawmakers with insufficient time to start and end Senate negotiations before turning to November's midterm elections. This makes the bill's lame-duck session during subsequent elections an increasingly realistic path for its passage should it pass through the Senate.
Galaxy Research has lowered its estimate of the probability that the CLARITY bill will become law in 2026 from 50% to 30% after the Senate failed to vote on the bill before its August recess. The market outlook is even more pessimistic, with the current pass probability of less than 20%.
