Vistra (VST) shares gain momentum after Thiel Macro disclosed a $59 million position

Summary

Thiel Macro LLC, managed by Peter Thiel, disclosed that it held 372,755 shares of Vistra Corp. (VST) stock worth approximately US$59.1 million at the end of the second quarter of 2026. On Friday, VST shares rose 3.5% to close at $149.27, although the price was still trading significantly below recent highs. Wall Street analysts maintain a "moderate buy" rating with a consensus price target of $223.53, meaning there is more than 49% upside potential based on current prices. The company's second-quarter results fell short of expectations, with earnings per share of $0.76, lower than market expectations of $1.61; revenue of $4.02 billion, lower than the forecast of $5.46 billion. As of the end of the second quarter of 2026, the number of hedge fund holdings increased to 111, an increase from the previous 106, of which Appaloosa managed approximately 2.22 million VST shares.

Vistra Corp. (VST) Share Price Performance and Fundamental Analysis

According to information disclosed in the 13F filing, Thiel Macro LLC, a private equity fund operated by Peter Thiel, maintained 372,755 Vistra Corp. (VST) shares worth approximately US$59.1 million at the end of the second quarter of 2026. Affected by the news, VST shares rose 3.5% to $149.27 on Friday. The stock hit an intraday high of $149.45 on Friday and finally closed close close to that level. Trading volume was approximately 4.58 million shares, slightly lower than the usual average daily trading volume, with a decrease of approximately 6%.

The company's second-quarter financial results fell short of market expectations. Vistra reported earnings per share of $0.76, well below the analyst consensus forecast of $1.61. Total revenue reached $4.02 billion, compared with Wall Street estimates of $5.46 billion.

Analysts remained optimistic despite disappointing quarterly results. The stock maintains a "moderate buy" consensus rating among Wall Street analysts, which includes 1 strong buy rating, 14 buy ratings and 2 hold ratings. The average target price is set at $223.53. Target prices across institutions range widely: Goldman Sachs maintains a target price of $206, Wells Fargo expects a target price of $212, Seaport Research Partners has a target price of $230, and Scotiabank recently raised its forecast from $293 to $298. Zacks downgraded its VST rating to "hold" from "strong buy" in August.

Why Thiel's position attracted market attention

The 13F document did not disclose the reasons for the investment, and disclosed the position at the end of the quarter rather than the specific trading date. Therefore, it is unwise to draw conclusions about investment logic too early. However, Vistra has taken a strategic position in discussions about whether power infrastructure rather than semiconductor capacity will be a limiting factor in the expansion of AI. Hyper-scale data centers require a large and stable power supply, and Vistra has diversified power generation assets in high-demand power markets.

Wolfe Research points out that the market may have underestimated Vistra's ability to translate data center power demand into significant EBITDA expansion and free cash flow generation.

Valuation Indicators and Institutional Positions

Vistra is currently trading at approximately 15.8 times forward earnings. In contrast, Constellation Energy has a larger nuclear power generation footprint and contract revenue base, with a valuation multiple of approximately 22.9 times. If Vistra can obtain more data center power agreements and improve earnings visibility, this valuation gap could narrow.

Institutional participation remains high. BlackRock opened new positions worth approximately $4.61 billion in the second quarter. Based on data for the same reporting period, Appaloosa holds approximately 2.22 million VST shares, an increase of approximately 10% from its first-quarter level.

Overall, as of the end of the second quarter of 2026, a total of 111 hedge funds held VST positions, compared with 106 in the previous quarter. Short interest totaled approximately 9.64 million VST shares, accounting for approximately 2.9% of the outstanding shares, and the number of days to close positions as of August 14 was 1.9 days.

In terms of shareholder returns, Vistra announced a quarterly dividend of $0.23 per share, scheduled to be paid on September 30 to registered shareholders on September 21. The annualized dividend yield is approximately 0.6%.

The company's debt-to-equity ratio is 5.87, its market value is US$50.10 billion, and its beta coefficient is 1.40. The Wall Street Consensus expects full-year earnings per share of $9.21.