U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) warns forecast market: Mentioning contracts

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission warns that forecast contracts involving the words, deeds or presence of specific people pose a risk of manipulation

The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has issued a warning to federally regulated forecast markets that contracts based on the words, presence or behavior of specific people may be presumed to be highly susceptible to manipulation. CFTC staff said that "Mention Markets" face higher risks of manipulation because the results depend on individual behavior. Under current federal rules, designated contract markets must demonstrate strong safeguards before listing such "mention contracts."

Enforcement cases reveal insider trading risks

Recent enforcement cases have highlighted the potential risks of insider control results. Gabriel Perez was confiscated $107,539 in illegal proceeds for profiting from private information on the presidential speech; George Santos paid $35,000 in fines and penalties for manipulating trading in contracts related to his attendance.

Core content of regulatory guidelines

CFTC市场监管部于9月22日发布了员工 advisory（咨询意见），涵盖基于特定字词或短语、活动出席、公开露面以及个人互动的合约。该指南直接适用于指定合约市场，并仅描述了在有限情况下此类产品如何满足现有的联邦市场诚信要求。与新委员会规则不同，该 advisory 仅提供信息性质，明确表示不创设新的法律义务。交易所仍需遵守《商品交易法》，包括核心原则3，即指定合约市场仅能上市不易受到操纵的衍生品。

CFTC声明此类合约“呈现高度操纵风险”。这与基于选举结果、经济数据发布或受监管体育比赛结果的合约不同，因为后者的结算通常不依赖于单一特定人物或小团体的可控行为。监管机构引用的例子包括演讲、财报电话会议、社交媒体帖子、活动亮相、照片拍摄以及私人互动等。

操纵风险的认定与反驳机制

CFTC工作人员指出，控制结果的人可能故意触发结果、阻止结果发生，或在结果确定前获知信息。例如，播客主持人可以说出与合约赔付挂钩的词汇，而拥有脚本、准备讲稿或嘉宾名单的人可能在结算前掌握重大未公开信息。因此，市场监管部认为提及类市场可能被视为“原则上易于受到操纵”。这一表述代表了工作人员在核心原则3下的监管观点，并不意味着该类别的所有合约都被自动禁止。

在有限情况下，指定市场可以通过证明其合约设计和控制措施足以降低操纵风险来推翻这一推定。工作人员强调，独立验证和广泛的公众审查是评估此类产品的关键考量因素。顾问建议交易所审查控制结算的个人是否面临法律、职业、受托、保密、合同或组织方面的义务，从而抑制其故意干预的动机。同时，交易所应单独考虑外部交易者是否可能通过付款、社会压力、诱导或其他形式的干扰来影响个人。

公共场所受到的关注尤为严格。CFTC工作人员指出，涉及公众人物的正式活动可能提供更强的独立验证，而在私人场合发生的行为或涉及非公众人物的行为则更难验证和监控。即使是在公共演讲中，如果合约依赖于与事件实质内容关联甚微的偶然词汇，也可能引发担忧。

过往执法案例详解

This advisory follows two CFTC enforcement cases involving traders 'own access rights or actions that influenced contract outcomes:

• Gabriel Perez: On August 28, regulators ordered former White House teleprompter operator Gabriel Perez to forfeit $107,539.02 and pay a civil fine of $65,000 for using the opportunity to gain access to President Donald Trump's speech in advance to trade contracts mentioned by the President. Perez was sentenced to a three-year trading ban. The CFTC found that between December 2025 and February 2026, he had access to presidential speeches in advance due to his federal duties, and used this information to generate more than $107,500 in profits. KalshiEX assisted with the investigation.
• George Santos case: Another July case involved former Rep. George Santos. The CFTC found that Santos traded contracts while making a public statement about whether he would attend the 2026 State of the Union address. Regulators said contract prices fluctuated in favor of Santos after several of its social media statements. The settlement required him to forfeit $17,569.98, pay a $17,500 civil fine, and accept a three-year trading ban. Kalshi subsequently imposed a permanent suspension on it.

Platform status and compliance requirements

新指南并未构成对提及类合约的行业全面禁令。截至9月23日，Kalshi仍展示与特朗普在联合国会议期间发言相关的市场，包括涵盖人工智能、北约和停火等术语的合约。另一项关于特朗普联合国大会演讲的合约记录了近194,000美元的交易量。CFTC档案显示，Kalshi此前已自我认证了涵盖特定人物是否会说特定词语的合约修正案。

9月22日的 advisory 意味着未来涉及此类产品的Part 40提交文件预计将包含更详细的、针对特定合约的操纵分析。工作人员鼓励平台识别潜在的控制者和已知内部人士，并据此调整头寸限制、报告要求、记录保存和监控控制。工作人员强调，置于控制结果者身上的独立义务并不能取代交易所自身的市场监控职责。寻求上市提及类合约的交易所需解释其规则如何检测操纵、操纵企图以及滥用未公开信息的行为。

Kalshi已减少了对部分此类领域的暴露。在CFTC审查提及类市场后，Kalshi于8月撤回了体育提及类合约，但政治和企业类合约仍可用。同日，Kalshi Klear请求批准覆盖选定事件合约的保证金框架，但其申请文件中提及，提及类和文化遗产类合约被排除在拟议的可合格群组之外。

预测市场法规制定进程

This reference to market-like advisory runs parallel to the CFTC's broader event contract rulemaking process. In June, the committee proposed amending Section 40.11 to establish a formal process for evaluating contracts involving areas specifically designated by Congress, such as gambling, terrorism, assassination, war, and activities that violate federal or state law. The proposal includes a 90-day review period and public interest factors for specific contracts.

CFTC data shows that the federally registered forecast market volume will exceed US$25 billion in 2025. Regulators describe event contracts as a growing part of the derivatives market, but note that the number is still small compared to the overall futures market it oversees, which is approximately US$31 trillion in nominal value. As of September 23, the committee had not yet released the final version of its June forecast market proposal. Its 2026 final rule list does not show that rule 40.11 has been developed, so the September 22 employee advisory still operates within the framework of existing Core Principle 3 and 40 requirements.

The federal framework is developing as courts hear separate disputes over state gambling jurisdiction. On August 28, the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals ruled that Kalshi had failed to show that the Commodity Exchange Act was likely to replace Nevada's regulation of its sports event contracts, allowing Nevada's sports-related enforcement to continue, while other issues were sent back to lower courts for retrial. Previous reports pointed out that the Ninth Circuit Court's ruling on Kalshi Sports forecast contracts in Nevada did not invalidate the CFTC's forecast market rules, nor did it determine how contracts for each type of event should be handled.

Polymarket的美国运营通过QCEX成为联邦注册市场结构的一部分。CFTC记录显示，Polymarket美国规则书的修正案已于4月获得认证，而QCEX在2026年期间继续向监管机构提交事件类产品。对于提及类市场而言，下一步的合规步骤在于指定合约市场在根据第40条提交新产品或修正案时。9月22日的 advisory 指出，工作人员期望每份提交文件提供对操纵因素的详细评估，并描述旨在解决这些问题的控制措施。