山寨币季即将来临——但交易者此次更加精挑细选

The altcoin season may not have officially arrived, but traders have begun to rotate the layout-data is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore

Although the "altcoin season" may not have officially begun, traders have begun to rotate assets, and relevant data is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore. In the past 30 days, the price of Meme coin launch platform PONS has soared by more than 350%; in the field of decentralized finance (DeFi), Uniswap's UNI has increased by more than 110%, Arbitrum's ARB has increased by more than 150%, and NEAR, which focuses on artificial intelligence, has also surged by about 180%.

According to CoinMarketCap data, the privacy token Zcash hit a record high of more than $1600 last week, while the Bitcoin Layer-2 token LIT and the Meme coin launch platform token PUMP were also among the best performing currencies during this period. These significant gains across different sectors do not point to an obvious trading strategy, but they suggest that many traders in this round are more inclined to focus on tokens with good business models behind them.

Observing the huge gains in tokens such as ARB, UNI, Jupiter's JUP and Ondo's ONDO, Bankless podcast host David Hoffman said on Friday that what they have in common is: "They make money and they are all generating revenue." This suggests that the rally may be driven by practicality rather than pure speculation.

Among the top 20 coins that rose last week, only two Meme coins were on the list. In the past week, only Puggy Penguins has entered the list.

Increased importance of fundamentals: Pattern evolution as market matures

不过，根据1inch联合创始人Sergej Kunz的观点，市场并非完全只关乎基本面。他指出，在过去30天里，Meme币在买家群体中展现了最强的增长势头。但他同时表示，DeFi协议、隐私代币、AI项目以及代币化资产也吸引了大量关注。

Kunz告诉媒体，“目前的模式是广度先于深度”，即更多钱包正在购买更广泛的代币种类，但单笔金额普遍较小。“数据中的谨慎态度符合更广泛的‘选择性参与’模式，”他说，“用户是在有选择地参与，而非全仓押注。”

那么，这一轮山寨币季究竟有何不同？市场是否终于变得更加精明，开始将资金配置到具有实际实用性的资产上（正如Hoffman所建议的那样），还是最终仍会被那些戴着帽子的狗和充满性暗示的Meme币所主导？

目前下定论还为时过早。CoinMarketCap官方指数尚未进入“山寨币季”状态。该指数目前为64分（满分100），虽较上周的48分有所上升，但仍低于标志着新季节正式开始的75分阈值。

少数代币占据了大部分市场份额。交易公司Talos的数据显示，目前前10大山寨币占总市值的比例约为80%，高于2024年底时的70%左右。

Samar Sen, head of Talos's international business, said the data points to a market where capital is concentrated in fewer assets rather than flowing broadly into long-tail assets. He pointed out that Talos's September money flow data also showed a "fairly strong buying tendency," with purchases dominating the market almost every day. This contrasts with the situation at the end of 2024, when sellers and sellers were evenly matched and the post-election rebound allowed a wider range of excess returns for multiple tokens, including DOGE, ADA and HBAR.

What are investors actually buying?

According to Sen, the strongest performers were funding around specific themes, such as revenue-generating agreements, on-chain perpetual contracts and DeFi projects, including HYPE, LIT, UNI and MORPHO.

Privacy-related assets such as ZEC, NEAR and XMR also performed strongly, while AI-related tokens including VVV and TAO also performed well.

Talos also observed intensive activity around the Meme coin launch platforms (including PUMP and PONS), the Robinhood ecosystem, and USELESS Meme coins, which performed well.

Like Kunz, Sen said the market is becoming "more selective." "Investors are concentrating on specific narratives and ecosystems rather than viewing altcoins as a single broadly traded object."

Tokenized gold and tokenized stocks also attracted more buyers, and AI tokens also rose,"albeit from a small base." Overall, this may not be a comprehensive shift from speculation to practicality, but a mixture of multiple competing narratives.

随着本月早些时候Robinhood平台上非传统交易对的激增，我们瞥见了各类别开始重叠的迹象。代币化股票突然通过BONER/HIMS和SPACEHOOD/SPCX等市场配对与Meme币进行交易。其中一种配对在9月初产生了超过4.25亿美元的24小时交易量。

更具基本面的山寨币季的理由

Curve Finance和Yield Basis创始人Michael Egorov表示，与之前的周期相比，他看到了更多关于实际用例和机构需求的关注。“总的来说，我认为现在对真正有用、能够将加密货币与现实金融活动联系起来并在实践中证明其价值的协议的兴趣增加了。”

稳定币是一个例子，特别是它们在链上外汇和金融科技应用中的使用。他认为，“最大的驱动力”将是加密基础设施与现实经济日益增长的整合。如果这种需求持续增长，可能会为本轮山寨币季带来新的买入动力，因为加密基础设施在加密交易之外变得更有用——但这只是一个巨大的假设。

是谁在推动这波反弹？

Talos数据显示，做市商在山寨币交易中的参与度已从2024年底的约65%降至9月的约32%，尽管资金流保持了强劲的买入趋势。“这与上一次山寨币反弹有着显著不同，”Sen说，“这表明流动性提供者和做市商在本次行情中所扮演的角色相对较小。”

At the same time, he said, access barriers have become lower, and exposure that previously required traders to interact directly with decentralized venues such as Raydium or Orca can now be obtained through mainstream platforms. This "lowers entry barriers and expands retail participation," he said.

During this cycle, professional traders have more tools to track funds, from wallet tracking to documentary transactions, which provide signals about the flow of capital between wallets, agreements and chains. According to Sen, this creates a complex way of combining broader retail access with professional traders to identify activity hotspots.