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FollowingPolymarket 任命 Lisa Mantil 为机构业务增长负责人
Prediction market（预测市场）平台 Polymarket 已确认任命 Lisa Mantil 为机构业务增长负责人。Mantil 曾在高盛担任合伙人，并在那里工作了近三十年。这一举措被视为对华尔街资金的一次押注，同时也发生在监管机构、州总检察长以及华盛顿特区的立法者越来越关注预测市场的背景下。
从 ETF 加速器到“爆炸性资产类别”
Mantil 以合伙人和全球 ETF 加速器负责人的身份从高盛退休。ETF 加速器是高盛的内部项目，旨在协助客户将新的投资产品推向市场。
Polymarket 首席执行官兼创始人 Shayne Coplan 在一份声明中表示，Mantil 在华尔街的人脉网络使她成为该职位的最佳人选。Mantil 也对此发表了看法，她将此次任命描述为一个机会，旨在“帮助塑造一个处于发展转折点的爆炸性资产类别”。
Mantil 的任命是 Polymarket 近期众多高级人才招聘之一。该公司此前还聘请了曾任亚马逊、达美航空和尼尔森公司高管的 Warren Jenson 担任其首位首席财务官（CFO）。
今年五月，Polymarket 推出了受美国监管的交易场所，并在从 1789 Capital 和洲际交易所等机构筹集了 10 亿美元后，目前估值约为 210 亿美元。
吸引大宗交易群体
Mantil was required to bring large traders to the platform, a goal previously predicted that the market had failed to achieve. Institutional adoption is still in its infancy, in part because operators and state regulators have argued over jurisdiction over sports-related event contracts.
Platform tools are gradually improving. Polymarket's competitor Kalshi completed its first major deal in the forecast markets space. The deal, which took place in April, was a privately negotiated deal designed to shift large positions without affecting prices. Polymarket's international platform took similar measures almost a month later.
Investigators have begun asking questions
Predicting the market has become a hot topic in Washington, D.C., with lawmakers questioning rumors of insider trading. Both the House Oversight Committee and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) are reviewing forecasting market activity.
The CFTC opened at least three investigations into Polymarket deals this year: contracts involving former President Joe Biden's pardon, the "Iran Incident Contract" and a Google-themed contract in July. Each order is approved by Chairman Michael Selig.
Polymarket has not faced any direct charges, and the company says its market is strictly controlled. The company handed over dozens of tagged accounts to the Justice Department, and Coplan pointed to proprietary surveillance software designed by former FBI officials.
尽管如此，反腐败数据集体（Anti-Corruption Data Collective）确定了 152 个账户，这些账户在战争市场交易中获利约 800 万美元，胜率高达 97%。其中一案已导致起诉：政府问责项目组织（POGO）指出，特种部队士兵 Gannon Ken Van Dyke 被指控利用机密信息在 Polymarket 交易中赚取超过 40 万美元。
各州和国会希望参与决策
争端已从 CFTC 扩展到更广泛的层面。纽约州总检察长 Letitia James 和州长 Kathy Hochul 对 Polymarket 提起诉讼，将其称为无执照的赌博运营。
Polymarket 随后在联邦法院提起反诉，主张管辖权属于 CFTC，且联邦法律保护其合约免受州赌博法规的约束。
纽约州议会目前有两项法案待审议，其中包括由参议员 Joseph Addabbo Jr. 提出的 ORACLE 法案。该法案旨在防止 21 岁以下用户访问预测市场，并寻求完全禁止某些市场。
在华盛顿特区，政府问责项目组织（POGO）要求参议院军事委员会重写 2027 财年《国防授权法》第 1801 条。POGO 希望禁止平台上所有国防部相关的交易，而不仅仅是那些超过 250 美元门槛且依赖重大非公开信息的交易。
