Gray Company Pandl warns that CLARITY bill may not be passed this year

Progress of key crypto market structure legislation bill stalled

An important crypto market structure legislation bill is rapidly losing momentum. Zach Pander, director of gray research, told investors that due to the busy Senate schedule and intensified political games in an election year, the possibility of the Clarification Act passing this year has been greatly reduced. In his analysis, he did not directly assert that digital assets would suffer disaster, but painted a more complex picture: although Bitcoin, mainstream Layer‑1 public chains and stablecoin payments could continue to grow without the bill, the lack of a unified regulatory framework in the United States has opened up opportunities for overseas competitors.

The original intention and practical dilemma of the Clarity Act

The Clarity Act aims to establish a comprehensive system of rules for the crypto market, clarify jurisdiction between the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and provide a clearer domestic operation path for crypto exchanges, token issuers and decentralized financial agreements. However, that ambition has stalled during the legislative cycle-the Senate's legislative efforts have been repeatedly blocked by banking interests and election-year battles. Pander believes that failure to pass the bill will not immediately kill existing encryption infrastructure. Bitcoin's "property" nature and the continued expansion of the dollar-anchored stablecoin on the public network provide bottom support for the market. But what worries him is the "ceiling" of the market.

Rule making as a stopgap measure

In the absence of a legislative framework, agencies such as the Securities and Exchange Commission are expected to continue to fill regulatory gaps through enforcement actions and progressive rule proposals, especially in the area of tokenized securities. This approach has left most areas of the market in a gray area. Developers and investors seeking clear rules boundaries may directly choose jurisdictions that provide clear rules. Pander warned that this dynamic could lead to a larger proportion of new investment and developer activity migrating outside the United States. This is not an abstract risk-recent blockchain developer activity data shows that while Ethereum and Solana still dominate, a large amount of innovation has been spread across multiple continents and often occurs in regions where the pace of regulation is faster.

The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission itself has stated that it will move forward with rules on tokenized assets even if Congress stagnates. Just a few days ago, the market witnessed the first real-time tokenized treasury bond settlement completed by a mainstream bank working with the DeFi protocol-a milestone that highlighted both technological readiness and a regulatory vacuum. Gray believes that these scattered steps can maintain market momentum, but cannot replace the kind of market structure bill that can lock the United States into a core hub for crypto-capital formation.

Construction direction during waiting period

Election year political calculations are important because they reset market expectations for the time point. Bills that miss the summer-China consultation period often have to wait until the next Congress before they can be advanced. For crypto companies weighing location decisions, this timeline is beyond the reach of many companies. The key turning point is not just about where the headquarters is located, but also about where the liquidity pool, developer tools, and institutional hosting infrastructure will be built. Regardless of what Washington subsequently moves, the companies that assume these roles in 2026 - 2027 will shape the next cycle.

Pander's analysis carefully avoids exaggerating downside risks to existing assets. Bitcoin's correlation with the global liquidity cycle and the steady growth in stablecoin settlement volumes do not require U.S. regulatory approval to continue. The question is who can seize the next wave of opportunities in on-chain applications, tokenized credit products, and real-world asset markets. If the United States relinquishes this field due to inaction, there are many jurisdictions around the world willing to fill the gap.

What remains uncertain is whether the Senate will find a legislative window after the uproar of the midterm elections subsides. Even a postponed consultation can send a signal that "the door is not completely closed." Currently, the market is pricing a situation where U.S. crypto regulation will evolve through institutional action rather than congressional design. This is a slow and controversial process that has left the industry on the sidelines, while offshore centers are stepping up efforts to polish their appeal.