White House plans to hold a cryptocurrency conference, CLARITY winning rate rises to 21%

The White House plans to meet with cryptocurrency and forecast market executives on August 19

It is reported that the White House plans to hold a meeting with cryptocurrency and forecast market industry executives on August 19. At the same time, Polymarket traders put a 21% chance of passing the Digital Asset Markets Clarity Act in 2026.

Summary

Cryptocurrency and forecasting market executives are expected to meet at the White House on August 19. It is unclear whether President Donald Trump will attend, or a complete list of attendees. Polymarket traders put a 21% chance that the CLARITY bill will become law in 2026. The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) will discuss cryptocurrencies and forecasting markets at its first Innovation Advisory Committee (IAC) meeting on August 20.

White House meeting may aim to resolve outstanding crypto disputes

According to people familiar with the matter, the White House is expected to host executives from the cryptocurrency and prediction markets industries on August 19. Reported that the White House has not announced the official agenda or list of participants. Executives from traditional financial companies may also attend, and it remains unclear whether President Trump will participate.

The meeting will bring together government officials and industry leaders, while the Senate is in recess in August. Cryptocurrency companies continue to urge lawmakers to pass the Digital Asset Markets Clarity Act, which would establish federal regulatory rules for digital assets and give regulatory powers to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), respectively.

For U.S. investors and cryptocurrency companies, the bill will determine which regulatory agency is responsible for different types of tokens, exchanges, brokers and dealers. The bill places the digital commodity spot market under the jurisdiction of the CFTC, while assets classified as securities remain regulated by the SEC.

The House passed its version of the bill by a 294 - 134 vote in July 2025, with 78 Democrats voting in support. The Senate Banking Committee subsequently advanced its version with a 15 - 9 vote in May 2026, but the proposal has not yet been voted on by the full house.

Senate Majority Leader John Thune said before recess that lawmakers did not have enough time to complete debate and amendments. It was reported last week that the Senate is scheduled to resume on September 14, after government funding negotiations and the midterm election schedule will take up limited time before then.

CLARITY Act still faces ethical and stablecoin differences

Negotiations have stalled on provisions covering government ethics, stablecoin rewards, decentralized finance and financial crime control. Each controversy could affect whether Senate leaders can gain the bipartisan support they need to move the bill forward.

Under Senate rules, supporters need to obtain 60 votes to overcome a filibuster and enter final deliberation. The Republican Party has 53 seats, which means that even if almost all Republicans support it, the proposal will still need the support of several Democrats.

An unresolved disagreement concerns restrictions on senior government officials holding cryptocurrencies and receiving related income. The Senate is reportedly waiting for a bipartisan ethics package developed by Republican Sen. Tom Tillis and Democratic Sen. Ruben Gallego. Allegedly, the White House had not approved the plan before the senators left Washington. Negotiators have been discussing ethical rules, while Democrats have sought stricter controls on the crypto activities of presidents, vice presidents, lawmakers and other senior officials.

The issue of stablecoin rewards has created another rift between cryptocurrency companies and U.S. banking organizations. Banks believe that rewards tied to stablecoin balances could draw away deposits from traditional banks, while cryptocurrency companies want platforms to retain the ability to provide certain activity-based incentives.

In July, banking groups urged Thun and Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer to amend section 404 of the bill. The American Bankers Association, the Independent Community Bankers Association of America and 76 state banking associations said existing language failed to explicitly ban incentives similar to bank interest. The associations point out that community banks use deposits to fund mortgages, agricultural credit and small business loans. In the letter, they asked senators to remove clauses that allow rewards based on factors such as account activity or how long a customer holds stablecoin.

The current draft language prohibits the payment of interest or gain on idle payments of stablecoin balances, but allows incentives associated with specific transactions or activities. Cryptocurrency representatives and banking groups are divided over whether the exception retains customer rewards or provides a way to circumvent the ban.

Forecast markets show low probability of passage

According to real-time market data from Polymarket, on August 14, traders believed that the CLARITY Act would become law in 2026 had a 21% chance. After news of the White House meeting broke, that number rose from 17% the day before.

According to the Polymarket market page, the contract has attracted approximately US$7 million in transaction volume. Contract rules require that H.R. Bill 3633 must be enacted before January 1, 2027, for "bullish" positions to be successfully settled. Predicted market prices represent the trader's implied probability rather than an official forecast. The contract fell sharply after the Senate confirmed it would adjourn without a vote, from a peak of 82% in February to 16% in early August.

The White House meeting itself will not change the procedural state of the bill. Any agreement on ethics, stablecoin rewards or other controversial language will still need the support of Senate negotiators and enough votes to break the 60-vote closing debate threshold. Even if the Senate passes the amended bill, Congress will still need to do more work. The House needs to accept the Senate text, or the houses must reconcile their differences before sending the final bill to Trump for signature.

CFTC meeting will be held the next day

The White House meeting is expected to be a day earlier than the CFTC's first Innovation Advisory Committee (IAC) meeting in Washington. According to the CFTC's August 13 agenda, committee members will discuss regulatory issues in crypto assets, artificial intelligence and prediction markets. The three-hour meeting is scheduled to be held from 1 p.m. to 4 p.m. EST on August 20.

Reports about IAC stated that committee members will be present in person and can be watched by the public online. The CFTC did not disclose the proposed rules on which members would vote, nor did it say the meeting would produce immediate policy changes. The advisory committee can make recommendations to the committee, but cannot independently issue or enforce regulations. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig is the initiator of the group, which includes entrepreneurs, researchers, financial industry participants and other experts.

Congress is considering passing the CLARITY Act to give the CFTC regulatory authority over the spot market for digital goods. Existing laws already give the agency regulatory authority over commodity derivatives, including futures and options linked to assets such as Bitcoin. The public can submit written statements related to the IAC meeting by August 27. The CFTC said eligible submissions must be marked as an "Innovation Advisory Board" and become part of the public record.