Bitcoin stabilizes at around $76,000 after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the first t

比特币在美联储加息后企稳，市场聚焦后续政策路径

周三，比特币价格维持在76,449美元附近。此前，受美联储宣布加息影响，加密货币市场经历了一段剧烈波动期，价格在下跌后迅速反弹。这一走势令投资者陷入深思：此次反弹究竟反映了市场真正的韧性，还是进一步压力来临前的短暂喘息？

美联储三年以来首次加息

联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）于周二投票决定将基准利率提高25个基点，目标区间从3.50%-3.75%上调至3.75%-4.00%。这是该央行紧缩周期中长达数年的暂停后的首次加息。

此次投票一致通过，也是自2025年5月以来的首次全票表决，彰显了政策制定者在通胀前景问题上达成的共识。尽管面临唐纳德·特朗普总统的压力——他曾呼吁降低利率，并威胁若美联储不放松借贷成本将对贸易伙伴加征额外关税——官员们仍按既定计划推进了决策。

在声明中，FOMC表示经济活动持续以稳健的步伐扩张，但通胀水平仍然偏高，并将此次加息描述为朝着更及时地实现2%通胀目标迈出的步骤。

加密市场短暂承压后迅速回升

As the market digested the decision, the overall cryptocurrency fell on Wednesday, but the decline did not last long. Bitcoin and other major tokens recovered most of their lost ground within hours.

Officials hint at possible further tightening of monetary policy

Typically, higher interest rates will reduce the attractiveness of risky assets, including cryptocurrencies, as funds will flow to safer instruments that provide comparable or higher returns. Analysts pointed out that a more significant risk than the rate hike itself is whether it marks the beginning of a new cycle of continued tightening.

The latest forecast data released along with the decision supports this view: 16 of 18 policymakers expect to raise interest rates at least once before the end of the year, and the median forecast shows the federal funds rate reaching 4.00%-4.25%. Analysts pointed out that given that the market has basically priced a 25-basis point interest rate hike, this prospect has a far greater impact on Bitcoin than the interest rate hike itself, because expectations of extending the tightening cycle have not yet been fully reflected in valuations.

Overview of Bitcoin's current market positioning

The following data provides a snapshot of current market conditions:

• BTC price: $76,449.90 (+0.79%)
• Market Value: $1.53 trillion
• Circulation Supply: 20.08 million BTC
• Maximum Supply: 21 million BTC
• Futures Volume (24 hours):$66.72 billion
• Spot Volume (24 hours):$4.49 billion
• Open Interest Value: $52.48 billion
• Options Volume: $4.61 billion
• Options Open Interest Value: $41.14 billion
• Long-short ratio (24 hours, overall):0.9818
• Total clearing amount (24 hours):$87.04 million
• Long clearing amount (24 hours):$31.49 million
• Short clearing amount (24 hours):$55.55 million
• Short-term holder realization price: $71,200

The overall long-short ratio is close to 1, indicating that the overall market is in a balanced state. However, during this period, short liquidations were almost twice the amount of long liquidations, consistent with the rapid rebound after the initial sell-off.

Exchange-level data presents a slightly different story. Binance's BTC/USDT long-short ratio is 1.4938, while OKX shows a more obvious bullish trend with a ratio of 1.75. Binance's main trader accounts and positions are also biased towards long positions, at 1.5608 and 2.279 respectively.

Liquidation data within shorter time windows highlights the speed at which positions change. In the past hour, positions of US$333,270 were cleared, of which the short position accounted for the largest amount of US$306,880. Within four hours, a total of $7.57 million was liquidated, with the bears taking the lead again, reaching $6.86 million, while the bulls were at $704,470. Within 12 hours, the total liquidation amount reached US$76.84 million, of which US$25.64 million was long and US$51.2 million was short.

Spot Bitcoin ETF experienced outflows for the second consecutive day

U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) recorded net outflows for the second consecutive day, with a total of US$295.98 million withdrawn during the trading session following the Fed's decision.

Outflows by issuers are as follows:

• BlackRock IBIT: $144.11 million
• ARKB: $84.4 million
• Fidelity FBTC: $52.72 million
• Grayscale GBTC: $18.22 million

Combined with the US$450.33 million outflow on September 15, the total net redemption over the two days has reached US$746.31 million. Analysts described the change as a significant shift in institutional sentiment, although it cannot yet be regarded as a decisive signal.

Market sentiment has shifted sharply from optimism to fear

Sand's social sentiment data shows that public position sentiment has fluctuated sharply over the past month.

Between August 19 and 21, market sentiment improved sharply as Bitcoin moved towards $80,000, coupled with bond repurchases easing yields and clearing short positions of more than $4 billion. But that optimism faded as the rally stalled.

The second round of enthusiasm emerged on September 3, with Bitcoin once again breaking through US$80,000, and the inflow of spot ETFs that day was approximately US$731 million. Prices then weakened.

On September 15, emotions reversed due to the Senate's failure to advance the CLARITY Act. Bitcoin fell as bearish comments reached their high this month.

Analysts warn that such extreme emotions are more crude counter-indicators than precise time signals. Still, significant fear after an actual sell-off is often seen as a more reliable measure than fanaticism after a rise.

Charts show Bitcoin consolidating below the resistance level

On the daily chart, Bitcoin entered a consolidation phase after climbing from the US$60,000 -65,000 range to US$80,000 -82,000.

• Current price: approximately $76,847
• 20-day moving average (EMA): approximately $76,847
• 50-day moving average (EMA): About $73,674
• 100 daily moving average (EMA): About $71,460
• 200 daily moving average (EMA): About $73,121

Prices have repeatedly failed to effectively stabilize above the US$80,000 -82,000 range, while the US$76,000 -77,000 range has been maintained as a near-term support level.

Implications of the current oscillation range for Bitcoin's next trend

Based on the current technical form, Bitcoin may continue to trade in the range of US$73,000 to US$82,000 in the short term. If we can effectively break through US$82,000, it may open a path to US$85,000 -88,000. On the contrary, if it decisively falls below US$73,000, the US$70,000 -71,000 range will receive renewed attention.

Analysts caution that this is only a scenario derived based on the level of existing charts and is not a deterministic forecast. Bitcoin has quickly broken through similar ranges in the past.

The next meeting of the Federal Reserve and any developments in crypto legislation such as the CLARITY Act are likely to have as significant an impact on sentiment as the technical side.

Disclaimer : This article is for reference only and does not constitute financial or investment advice. Cryptocurrency prices fluctuate violently and involve significant risks. Before making any investment decisions, be sure to research and consult a licensed financial adviser yourself.