Whales are hoarding Ethereum: A rebound signal?

Ethereum (ETH) market: Institutional demand, ETF capital inflows and whale hoarding resonate, and exchange ETH inventories fell to a record low.

Against the backdrop of simultaneous efforts of institutional demand, ETF capital inflows and giant whale hoarding, supply tensions in the Ethereum (ETH) market have become increasingly prominent. Data shows that large investors have absorbed more than 320,000 ETH in a short period of time. At the same time, the number of million-dollar chain transactions surged by about 500%, significantly increasing market activity. The spot Ethereum ETF recorded positive capital inflows for seven consecutive trading days, while SharpLink Company pledged an additional 42,074 ETH, further exacerbating the pressure on liquidity. For subsequent movements in Ethereum prices, breaking through the key resistance range between $2,722 and $2,822 is seen as a top priority.

Continued net inflow of Ethereum ETF funds

The US-listed spot Ethereum ETF recorded a net inflow of US$17.1 million on September 28. Among them, BlackRock's ETHA fund accounted for the majority of the shares, with a single inflow of US$15.4 million;21Shares's TETH fund also received a capital injection of US$1.7 million. This series of positive signals has extended the positive capital inflow sequence of Ethereum ETF to seven trading days. Looking back at the previous week, a total of approximately US$690 million in funds poured into related products, showing that institutional investors are still interested in Ethereum.

Exchange ETH reserves fall sharply

Another eye-catching phenomenon in the Ethereum market is the rapid decline in the number of ETH on exchanges. Currently, the proportion of Ethereum hosted on exchanges in total supply has dropped to 3.49%, a record low. Since June 1, ETH equivalent to approximately 1.16% of total supply has been withdrawn from the exchange. As one of the important participants in reducing exchange supply, SharpLink recently pledged 42,074 ETH units worth US$112.8 million. This move brought SharpLink's total assets held by Ethereum to 892,127, of which approximately 27,945 ETH were awarded through pledge.

It is estimated that approximately 35% of ETH has been locked up by pledge, and the total value locked up in the decentralized finance (DeFi) agreement is approximately US$53 billion. This pattern suggests that if market demand suddenly increases, the supply of ETH that can be traded immediately in the market may be relatively limited.

The Ethereum giant whale has accumulated more than 320,000 ETH

The dynamics of the giant whale is also an important indicator for observing the wind vane of the Ethereum market. According to data provided by analyst Ali Martinez, in just one week, the number of Ethereum transactions worth more than $1 million surged from 1,202 to 7,113, an increase of nearly 500%. During the same period, large investors purchased more than 320,000 ETH units worth approximately US$864 million. ETF capital inflows, giant whale purchases, and a decrease in exchange supply occurred during the same period of time, bringing the market's attention to the balance of supply and demand to a new level.

Technical analysis: Key resistance levels need to be exceeded

尽管链上指标表现积极，但以太坊价格仍面临重要的技术阻力。Martinez的分析指出，2,722至2,822美元区间是一个关键区域，此前有超过1,300万枚ETH在此区间内成交。若要延续上涨势头，ETH必须有效突破该区域。预计价格可能会多次尝试突破此界限。如果以太坊价格能稳定在2,822美元上方，下一个重要阻力位将看向2,970美元，随后则是3,366美元。

综合评估

以太坊ETF资金的持续流入、巨鲸大规模囤积超过32万枚ETH，以及交易所ETH占比降至3.49的历史低位，共同强化了当前的供需动态。然而，这些基本面因素并不直接保证价格上涨。从技术角度看，能否有效突破2,722至2,822美元区间是判断趋势延续的关键阈值。一旦在该区域上方确立稳固地位，2,970美元和3,366美元将成为投资者重点关注的目标价位。