Reserves on the SHIB exchange plunged 50%, and prices fell simultaneously

The reserves of the Shiba Inu Exchange fell by 50%, and the price fell simultaneously.

The reserves of Shiba Inu in the centralized exchange have dropped to 87.3 trillion tokens. Throughout the decline in reserves, there was no buying pressure at any stage. The surge in trading volume at the end of July was seen as a selling opportunity rather than a signal to open a position. If the daily close falls below $0.0000404, it will break the bottom support that has been held since June. As of August 17, the trading price of Shiba Inu in Binance was US$0.0000446, down 1% on the day and 94% from the historical high in October 2021. CryptoQuant data shows that the number of SHIBs stored on centralized exchanges is 87.3 trillion, down from approximately 175 trillion at the end of 2023 and approximately 140 trillion in December 2024. In less than two years, the supply held by exchanges has halved. Prices have also fallen along the way.

This point is worth pondering. A decline in exchange reserves is often automatically seen as a bullish signal, with the logic that tokens placed in private wallets mean no one will sell them. However, SHIB has spent twenty months verifying this logic, and the result is negative.

Comparison of changes in reserves and price trends

End of 2023: approximately 175 trillion pieces, and the price is approximately US$0.000080
December 2024: approximately 140 trillion pieces, and the price is approximately US$0.0000250
September 2025: approximately 95 trillion pieces, and the price is approximately US$0.0000120
August 2026: 87.3 trillion pieces, price of US$0.0000446

Data sources: CryptoQuant, Binance. Reserve data rounded up.

A sharp drop in January was the main change

One feature of reserve charts complicates any clear interpretation. At the beginning of January 2025, the balance dropped sharply from approximately 140 trillion pieces to less than 110 trillion pieces, showing a one-step pattern rather than a gradual decline. Such declines are rarely the result of thousands of individual investors self-custody on the same afternoon. Usually this is the result of an exchange rearranging its wallet, a data provider changing its label, or a large entity transferring assets. After that, there will be a slow decline process-it will remain at around 110 trillion pieces in the spring of 2025, drop to 95 trillion pieces in the autumn, and fluctuate horizontally in the high range of 80 trillion pieces in 2026. If you exclude the sharp drop in January, the trend is still downward, just less drastic.

Absent sellers are not buyers

Reduced reserves can only support prices when demand is stable and reduced supply truly goes dormant. But neither of these points applies to the current situation. Among the holders of SHIB, investors will enter the market in 2021, and they will suffer deep losses. A person who loses 94% and transfers tokens to a hardware wallet will not become a buyer. He is just an "absent seller", which is a weaker signal. Supply left the order book, but there was no new capital to compete for the rest, and prices continued to fall amid thin participation.

The 7-day average net inflow is currently 1.1 billion coins, close to the bottom of the range since 2023. There was a huge net inflow peak in December 2025, exceeding 25 billion pieces. This was a vertical histogram that overwhelmed all surrounding data, and prices fell below support in the following months. Recently, after the July volume event, net inflows rebounded slightly to about 5 billion pieces-not much, but in the wrong direction for those who view reserve outflows as a permanent signal.

Peak net inflows tend to occur when prices fall below key support, rather than at the bottom of prices.

The K-line that forms the top

Prices have been in a downward trend since hitting a high of about $0.0000660 in early May, and found a bottom around $0.0000404 in late June. This low anchors the Fibonacci grid drawn from the May high. Since mid-June, prices have fluctuated between US$0.0000404 and approximately US$0.0000480, experiencing a sharp fluctuation during this period.

That fluctuation occurred in the last week of July. A one-day K-line pushed prices to a high of $0.0000538, exactly the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, and volume was about four times the surrounding average. The K-line eventually closed below its high and gave up all its gains in subsequent trading days. Such a large trading volume failed to hold on to the increase, indicating that someone used liquidity to leave the market rather than open a position. This followed the shadow line and has suppressed all attempts to rise since then. Four months since its peak, SHIB has failed to even recover a quarter of its decline.

Key prices from top to bottom

US$0.0000569-Fibonacci 0.618 retracement level. Recovering that position would mark a real trend shift.
US$0.0000538-Fibonacci 0.5 retracement level. The peak high in July has not been touched since then.
US$0.0000506-Fibonacci 0.382 retracement level. The rebound in early August was blocked here.
US$0.0000467-Fibonacci 0.236 retracement level coincides with the 20-day moving average. Current direct resistance above.
US$0.0000446-Current price, near the 50-day moving average (US$0.00000447).
$0.0000404-The bottom of June and July was held for every test.

The two moving averages differ by 4% and lack of trading direction

The 50-day and 20-day simple moving averages have converged to near prices at US$0.0000447 and US$0.00000466 respectively. The 50-day moving average leveled in July after months of decline. The 20-day moving average bent upward when it surged in July, then fell back again in August. The two moving averages are so close that prices are sandwiched in the middle, which is not a sign of direction. This suggests that volatility expansion is closer than it was a month ago, because the moving average will not remain so tightly entangled for long. The RSI reading is 45.41 and the signal line is 48.97-below the central axis, below the signal line, showing a downward trend. In July, the K-line pushed the RSI to around 78, and has continued to fall back since then, meaning that the momentum of the upward wave was completely exhausted after only one trading day. There were no signs of divergence on either side. Trading volume also confirms this point: trading volume in the past ten trading days is much lower than the July average, and buyers and sellers are roughly balanced.

The direction of breakthrough will determine the trend

$0.0000404 is a key line of defense. It has been tested and held many times since the end of June, and is also the Fibonacci anchor point. Once the daily line closes below that level, the two-month bottom support will expire, and there will be no clear support structure below until well below $0.0000400. On the other hand, bulls need to close the daily line above the US$0.0000467 resistance zone with real volume to make US$0.0000506 realistic. Judging from the evidence, the bearish view is stronger. The downtrend since May remains intact, the July surge has been hit by a strong sell-off, and prices cannot even hold the shallowest retracement level. Bullish views rely entirely on that bottom support.

Neither chart shows the Shibarium network. Destruction rates and second-tier transaction volumes directly affect the supply story that reserve reductions should support. If inflows continue to rise and destruction rates remain flat, the decline in reserves will lose any bullish significance.