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SOL 比特币目标价指向20万美元，衍生品持仓在7月去杠杆后仍维持高位
历史周期显示山寨币季节（Altseason）的涨幅正在扩大，预计第三轮周期的涨幅将达到10,20%，前提是经历另一轮调整。不断上升的未平仓合约量和交易量使交易者持续关注杠杆、价格结构以及下一次潜在的市场轮动。随着当前周期的发展，比特币的前景主要集中在更强劲的衍生品活动、预期的回调以及另一次可能的山寨币季节。
下一轮山寨币季节建立在早期周期之上
Crypto Zenkai 认为，在未来6到12个月内，比特币的价格将达到20万美元。该帖子还预测以太坊将交易于10,000美元以上，索拉纳（Solana）将突破1,000美元。此外，市场预计在该阶段山寨币和模因币（Memecoins）的涨势将加速。
配套的图表将三个主要的山寨币季节周期与比特币的结构进行了对比。第一个周期紧随2017年左右比特币的严重下跌之后。在那段时期，广泛的山寨币阶段记录了估计高达4,600%的收益。第二个周期紧随另一个主要比特币低点及其随后的恢复期。其显著的山寨币季节行情达到了估计7,500%的涨幅，这一数字超过了早期周期记录的百分比。
The chart identifies the current period as the third expected altcoin season. Its potential increase is about 10,200%, exceeding the mark of the previous two cycles. This comparison forms the basis of the chart's long-term market forecast.
Bitcoin structure points to another round of correction
Bitcoin has rebounded significantly from the early-cycle lows shown in the chart. Recent prices are close to the downward white trend line marking major historical highs. The highlighted area then becomes the starting point of the expected path.
The chart predicts that Bitcoin will move downward from this highlighted area. This path will eventually approach the upward red trend line in 2027. Red lines connect major historical bottoms in the broader market structure. This expected decline does not mark the end of the cycle shown. Instead, the chart schedules another altcoin season after Bitcoin reaches long-term support. This forms a sequential process of rise, correction, accumulation, and renewed expansion.
Derivatives charts add another dimension to the current market structure. Bitcoin trades around $65,000 on the price scale displayed. At the same time, open interest volumes have recovered to about $50 billion after falling in July.
Source: Coinglass
Open interest volume remains high in derivatives activity
Since late May, the volume of open interest has continued to expand as Bitcoin enters a stronger period of price increases. Trading volume also increased, indicating increased activity in the derivatives market. By early July, open interest volume reached approximately $70 billion to $80 billion.
Subsequently, Bitcoin fell from its high in early July, accompanied by a sharp decrease in the volume of open contracts. This movement suggests that a large number of leveraged positions were cleared during the adjustment period. Despite the market correction, trading volumes remained high, indicating continued participation.
As Bitcoin stabilized after an early deleveraging purge, open contract volume later recovered. As a result, the latest market structure combines re-established positions with a resurgent Bitcoin market. Traders remain concerned about whether positions will continue to expand as prices rise further.
This chart and Crypto Zenkai's post show the relevant stages in the same cycle. Bitcoin remains the main reference point for expecting broader market rotation. Therefore, forecasts for the third round of the altcoin season depend on another round of Bitcoin correction and subsequent expansion.
