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XRP XRP价格回升至1.45美元附近，分析师Maelius认为更大行情或在后头
XRP价格近期从低点反弹，目前交易在1.45美元左右。然而，分析师Maelius认为更大的行情可能还在后面。他最新的长期分析指出，XRP可能刚刚完成了一个主要的修正阶段，这为延伸至2027年的上涨行情打开了大门。
Maelius的分析与典型的看涨价格预测不同之处在于，他还讨论了持有者何时应考虑卖出。在他的框架中，下一个主要浪潮的目标价位是10美元；而在加密货币市场增长和XRP主导权极端看涨的组合下，上限情景接近37美元。但Maelius明确警告持有者不要简单地等待这两个数字中的任何一个。他的策略是在XRP价格上涨的过程中逐步获利了结，而不是试图识别确切的周期顶部。
Maelius认为XRP刚刚完成主要第二浪
Maelius理论的基础是艾略特波浪理论（Elliott Wave theory）。他认为XRP已经完成了大型的修正性第2浪，现在可能正在准备第3浪，这通常被认为是五浪结构中最强的推动部分。
由于XRP最近的修正持续时间比最初预期的更长，且幅度更深，他的解读发生了变化。这并没有让他变得更看空，反而促使他重新考虑自前几个周期以来的整个结构应如何计数。特别是，Maelius不认为XRP在2020-2021年的上涨是一个有效的宏观第1浪，因为他将该时期的价格走势视为修正性而非推动性。最近的下跌也进入了会对替代性艾略特波浪计数造成问题的领域，因为根据标准的艾略特波浪规则，第4浪不能在第1浪的常规推动中出现重叠。
简而言之，他偏好的计数方式将XRP置于其长期看涨结构中更早的位置。如果正确的话，最强劲的上涨部分尚未发生。Maelius预计这个提议的第3浪将持续到2027年。
XRP图表描绘了突破10美元的潜在走势
周线图直观地展示了这一理论。XRP在2017年的巨大涨幅被标记为第一个主要五浪上涨。2018年至2024年期间的大部分时间被视为长期的修正和积累期。重要的是，2021年的反弹未能建立新的历史新高，这支持了Maelius的观点，即它不一定应被视为一个全新推动周期的开始。
来源：X/@MaeliusCrypto随后，图表显示XRP在2024年底突破了多年的积累结构，并最终突破3美元。随后的下跌至约1美元被标记为宏观第2浪。此后，XRP已回升至约1.45美元，而图表底部的周线RSI似乎也已突破了一条下降阻力线。
从这里开始，Maelius描绘了一个延伸至2027年的五浪第3浪结构。他的图表在第4浪修正之前设定了一个显著目标，约为10.07美元，随后再次上涨。然而，正如任何艾略特波浪计数一样，这条路径是一种解释，而非预定的序列。
为什么10美元是Maelius更保守的目标
Maelius通过比较第3浪和第1浪的潜在规模得出了10美元的结论。艾略特波浪的一个核心规则是，在推动浪中，第3浪不能是第1、3、5浪中最短的。第3浪也经常是艾略特波浪上涨中最强劲的部分，尽管这种趋势并不意味着每一个第3浪都必须产生巨大的反弹。
在Maelius偏好的计数中，假设即将到来的第3浪大致与第1浪的幅度相匹配，将使XRP至少达到10美元左右。重要的是，他不认为10美元是牛市最终顶部。这是他提出的在更大结构内的第3浪目标。
从大约1.45美元达到10美元，需要XRP上涨近590%。这本身就说明了该预测是多么看涨，以及艾略特波浪计数背后的假设为何如此重要。
Can XRP really reach $37?
Maelius's $37 scenario is more speculative. Instead of deriving it purely from XRP's charts, he combined two assumptions: the total market value of the crypto market eventually reached approximately US$18 trillion, and XRP's dominance climbed to approximately 13%.
If the entire crypto market is worth US$18 trillion, and XRP accounts for 13% of it, then the implied market value of XRP is approximately US$2.34 trillion. Using a mathematical calculation of more than 60 billion yuan in circulation, XRP's price would be at a high of more than $30, which is roughly in line with his estimate of $37. But these two conditions must occur at the same time. The $18 trillion crypto market represents a huge expansion from current levels, and 13% XRP dominance requires XRP to occupy a larger share of the market. Maelius himself called $37 an approximation of his absolute maximum wave 3 scenario, rather than what investors should assume will be achieved.
So when does Maelius think XRP holders should sell?
Interestingly, the most practical part of his analysis is not the $10 or $3 target.
Maelius explicitly recommends not holding all positions and waiting for a huge number. Instead, he tends to gradually sell some XRP positions as prices rise. In his framework, profit-taking should begin before XRP reaches $10.
His final exit signal involved the dominance of XRP, not just the price of XRP. Maelius is looking at whether XRP's share of the overall crypto market could reach the long-term supply area starting at around 13%. If dominance reaches that region, he believes it could indicate that XRP is approaching its relative peak or is about to start to outperform the broader market.
This makes his strategy fundamentally different from "selling XRP at $37." His $37 figure is an optimistic upper limit generated by multiple assumptions. His actual strategy is to gradually take profits during the rise, and if XRP dominance reaches his long-term supply area, he may withdraw from remaining positions.
The overall outlook depends on Maelius's Elliot Wave Count remaining valid and there is no guarantee that XRP will reach $10, let alone $37. But if his macro interpretation is correct, his core message is clear: the next major XRP rally may last longer than many holders expect, but waiting for the absolute top may be the riskiest way to trade.
