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SHIB averaged 167.5% in October, but one-year data distorted overall performance

2026-09-24 03:15:45

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In the third quarter, SHIB rose 44.1%, recording an increase for three consecutive months.

In the third quarter, Shiba Inu (SHIB) achieved a cumulative increase of 44.1% thanks to its three consecutive months of upward momentum. Despite this quarter's impressive performance, it should be noted that historical data shows that October typically has an average return of 167.5%, yet this figure relies almost entirely on the astonishing explosion in 2021.

Summary of Key Data

SHIB achieved cumulative growth of 44.1% in the third quarter, driven by three consecutive months of positive earnings.
The historical average return of 167.5% in October was mainly affected by the extraordinary surge in 2021.
If the October 2021 data is excluded, the average return rate for the remaining years will drop to approximately 0.96%, with a median of approximately 6.04%.
The main short-term support level is in the range of US$0.0000560 to US$0.0000570.
Despite the quarterly rebound, SHIB's decline over the past year and year-to-date remains significant.

Three consecutive months of gains: Overall market recovery drives recovery

After experiencing a 24% decline in June, Shiba Inu benefited from the overall recovery of the cryptocurrency market. The token is moving towards its best third quarter since its launch, although the sequence will officially end on September 30. This correction is accompanied by the growth of the entire sector. Since the beginning of this round of market, the total market value of cryptocurrencies has increased from US$215 billion to US$289 billion, an increase of 34.4%. This shows that the recovery of SHIB does not rely solely on factors within its ecosystem, but is closely related to macro market trends.

月度表现详解

以下月度数据详细展示了本季度的积极构建过程：

7月：SHIB上涨12.2%
8月：上涨7.55%
9月：上涨19.4%

截至9月23日，其季度累计回报率达到44.1%。由于季度结束前尚余一周的交易时间，上述数据仍为初步统计结果。

历史平均值的误区：2021年的极端影响

在历史序列中，SHIB在十月份的平均表现确实约为167.5%。这一统计数据看似极高，但并不能反映该代币的常态行为。2021年10月，Shiba Inu暴涨833.6%，触及历史新高。随后几年的表现则平淡许多：2022年10月上涨近10%，2023年上涨6.13%，2024年仅上涨1.33%，而2025年10月则下跌了13.61%。

因此，单一观察值解释了大部分平均值。当从计算中剔除2021年10月时，其余四年的平均回报率降至约0.96%。对极端值不敏感的中位数约为6.04%。由此可见，167%的触发点既非技术信号也非预测依据，它仅仅是包含一个惊人结果的五年十月份数据的平均值。样本量过小，不足以确立可靠的季节性规律。

技术分析：阻力位测试与支撑确认

尽管如此，SHIB的结构改善迹象已十分明显。该代币在0.0000034至0.0000045美元之间形成了双底形态，随后启动复苏。这可能表明卖方力量耗尽，但需要确认突破阻力位才能确立趋势。

9月23日，SHIB一度接近0.00000627美元，随后回落至约0.00000602美元。因此，首个需超越的区域位于0.00000620至0.00000630美元之间。若日线收盘站稳该区间上方，将巩固反弹势头，并将下一个关注目标重新定位至0.00000650至0.00000670美元。

更显著的阻力位位于0.0000075美元。突破此关口将打开通往0.000011美元的路径。然而，这些阈值源自链上分析，并不代表保证的目标价位。0.00000560至0.00000570美元区间构成主要的短期下行支撑。若持续跌破该水平，反转尝试可能会减弱。

长期视角：年度表现仍处负值区间

最后，必须将此次季度增长置于更长的时间维度中进行考量。尽管近期有所上涨，但自2026年初以来，SHIB仍下跌了12.6%，过去一年跌幅近50%。该代币距离2021年的历史高点仍有很大差距。

未来十月的表现将更多地取决于需求、成交量以及整体市场的增长，而非历史平均值。保持在0.00000560美元上方有助于维持当前结构，而确认突破0.00000630美元则将是第一个额外的积极信号。

此外，167.5%的平均回报率虽能吸引注意力，但6.04%的中位数更准确地反映了可用历史数据。因此，十月对于SHIB价格而言可能是一个有利的月份，但并不构成立即上涨的直接触发条件。

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