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山寨币季节开始了吗？信号交叉，山寨币超越比特币

2026-09-24 00:36:16

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Key Facts

Glassnode's "Altcoin Cycle Signal" reached 81.25 on Monday, entering the company's defined "altcoin season" range. On Tuesday, the total market value of altcoins reached $1.19 trillion, the highest level since the end of January. Among them, the NEAR Agreement (NEAR) has increased by about 86% in the past seven days, Bitcoin Cash (BCH) has increased by 59% against Bitcoin, while Bitcoin itself has increased by only 12%.

CoinMarketCap's altcoin seasonal index has climbed to 54 points out of 100 from 33 points a week ago, and the agency defines 75 points as a symbol of the altcoin season. Currently, altcoins are outperforming Bitcoin with their biggest advantage in months. A much-watched indicator suggests that altcoin season may have arrived.

According to CoinMarketCap, the NEAR protocol (NEAR) has increased by about 86% in the past seven days, Bitcoin Cash (BCH) has increased by 59%, Uniswap (UNI) has increased by 53%, Zcash (ZEC) has increased by 31%, Cardano (ADA) has increased by 29%, XRP has increased by 24%, and Bitcoin (BTC) has increased by about 12%.

Glassnode's "altcoin cycle signal" reached 81.25 on Monday, a level the company classifies as altcoin season. CoinMarketCap's altcoin seasonal index has risen from 49 points on Tuesday to 54 points now, compared with 33 points the previous week.

The breadth of this rally is wider than that in August this year. "In the first wave of rebound in August, altcoins performed relatively smoothly, while Bitcoin fluctuated significantly. However, today's market has ignited an overall rise in the altcoin market,"Glassnode said.

山寨币季节是否已经开始？一个指数给出了肯定答案

Glassnode的信号权重基于前250大加密货币的总市值与比特币市值的比率。周二，该总额达到1.19万亿美元，创下1月底以来的新高，自8月19日以来已上涨约33%。该信号采用0-100分制的七日滚动平均值进行计算。

CMC山寨币季节指数正倾向于山寨币季节。来源：CoinMarketCap

CoinMarketCap的指数计算方法不同。它衡量的是在过去90天内，前100个代币中有多少击败了比特币。目前有54个代币做到了这一点，而CoinMarketCap认为当这一数值达到75时才算真正的山寨币季节。

为何山寨币上涨？每个项目都有各自的理由

本周各项目的涨幅背后都有其特定的驱动因素。比特币现金和Uniswap的上涨是因为CME Group宣布将列出这两种资产的未来合约，目标日期为10月19日，具体取决于监管批准。LayerZero（ZRO）则因与Anchorage Digital达成合作推出受监管的稳定币而上涨。

Raydium（RAY）因代币化股票叙事以及与Injective（INJ）在Solana（SOL）去中心化交易所上的整合而上涨。NEAR因与Ondo（ONDO）的整合以及Hyperliquid（HYPE）现货上市而上涨，Aave（AAVE）则因其第四版存款突破10亿美元而上涨。Pudgy Penguins（PENGU）随之攀升，但未报告新的基本面催化剂。

“山寨币季节不再由从比特币到山寨币的资产轮动来定义，”CryptoQuant首席执行官Ki Young Ju在2024年12月曾表示。“稳定币流动性更能解释山寨币市场。”

最终定论的关键：CoinMarketCap指数达到75

比特币的市场份额保持稳定。其主导地位为59.0%，与一周前相同，也接近一个月前的59.2%。今年以来，该数字一直在57.3%（6月）至60.6%（5月）之间波动。

有两个阈值可以最终确定这一问题：CoinMarketCap指数达到75，或者比特币的主导地位跌破上述区间。即使这两个条件均未打破，山寨币仍可能继续跑赢比特币。

“当市场关注宏观经济不稳定以及对美元的风险时，比特币的主导地位可能会上升，”Grayscale研究主管Zach Pandl在2025年5月表示。

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