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比特币在特朗普发出伊朗战争和平信号后攀升至7.9万美元以上

2026-09-15 18:37:38

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比特币新闻

9月14日，随着市场回应美国总统唐纳德·特朗普关于美伊冲突可能即将结束的信号，比特币（BTC）价格重新站上79,000美元上方。这一走势抹去了周末的跌幅，使BTC当日上涨约3%。

比特币价格图表来源：CoinMarketCap

特朗普在“真实社交”（Truth Social）平台上发帖称，伊朗“想要快速且迫切地达成一项协议”，并表示美国愿意进行接触。随后他发布的一篇帖子预测，一旦军事冲突结束，油价将“暴跌”。受此言论影响，油价曾短暂下跌后趋于稳定。截至撰稿时，美国西德克萨斯中质原油（WTI）维持在每桶100美元以上，布伦特原油交易价格为每桶105美元。

美股反应与美联储加息预期

受该消息影响，美国股市开盘 initially 走高，随后转为下跌。截至撰稿时，标普500指数下跌0.3%，主要受到中东关键石油运输路线（包括霍尔木兹海峡、沙特东西输油管道以及曼德海峡）持续不确定性的拖累。

美联储加息预期已基本完全定价

市场已明确转向为9月17日美联储会议上可能出现的利率上调进行定价。根据芝商所（CME Group）FedWatch工具的数据，加息25个基点至3.75%-4%区间的概率高达92.7%，较一周前的59.4%大幅上升。

Trading firm QCP Capital pointed out that long-term high oil prices could complicate the Fed's way forward. The company warned that high energy costs, if passed through to transportation and logistics pricing, could drive up inflation expectations and limit central banks 'ability to pause the tightening cycle even if broader economic data weaken.

QCP said in comments on September 14:"This dynamic has created policy tension: Continued energy prices may force the Fed to maintain a restrictive stance, while weak data caused by high energy costs may support a patient wait-and-see attitude."

Bitcoin recovers key technical positions

QCP also believes that given that a 25 basis point rate hike has been widely expected, the market's focus has shifted to how Fed officials will express their decision and what path this portends for the future. The overall mild response to last week's consumer price index data confirmed that policymakers 'language is now more important than interest rate movements themselves.

On September 14, Bitcoin regained its 50-week exponential moving average (EMA) at US$77,430 after the K-line closed below this level the previous week. For bulls seeking to confirm a return to an upward trend, this level is seen as a key technical support line for BTC.

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