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BTC Bitcoin is in a narrow range as markets wait for Federal Reserve interest rate decision
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trapped in a narrow price range, and investors are waiting for the Federal Reserve to announce its interest rate decision on Wednesday. Although selling pressure has eased, the buying force was not enough to push bitcoin prices up clearly.
Trading range narrows, market sentiment is calm
According to Bitfinex Alpha data, Bitcoin has fluctuated within a narrow range of 5.5% for more than 24 trading days, keeping the market generally calm. The report pointed out that the next trend may depend on whether new demand returns after the Fed's decision, as traders have already established positions at both ends of the range.
Selling pressure has eased, but buyers remain cautious
The cost base of approximately 840,000 bitcoins lies within this narrow range, meaning that the coins were bought within that price range. Glassnode data shows that the risk ratio faced by sellers has dropped to 7 basis points, indicating that long-term holders are less willing to take profits. The current remaining supply is mainly made up of newer investors, but trading activity remains sluggish. In other words, without a strong influx of new buying orders, sellers become less aggressive.
In addition, leveraged positions are also accumulating around current price levels, which could make any breakout more volatile. CoinGlass data shows that there may be a short liquidation risk of approximately $1.95 billion around $82,000, while long positions are concentrated in the $75,000 to $76,000 range.
机构需求减弱，上行阻力增加
机构需求的减弱也为持续上涨增添了另一重障碍。上周，美国现货比特币ETF出现超过4.6亿美元的资金净流出，抛售了约5,900枚比特币；而以太坊ETF则吸引了1.969亿美元的资金流入。尽管九月份的ETF资金流总体仍为正数，但近期的流出迹象表明，机构需求的减弱可能会限制比特币的上行空间。
通胀压力持续，美联储面临挑战
通胀数据为形势增添了另一层挑战。8月物价环比上涨0.4%，同比上涨3.4%。核心通胀率虽降至2.4%，但汽油价格上涨了3.9%，柴油价格达到每加仑5.65美元。
高昂的能源成本可能导致通胀维持在较高水平，特别是当布伦特原油价格在每桶100美元以上交易，且美国战略石油储备降至2.854亿桶时。这可能会降低市场对宽松货币政策的预期，从而继续对利率构成压力。
目前，市场预计9月16日加息25个基点的概率为88.5%。美国10年期实际国债收益率已升至2.55%，这使得比特币等无收益资产对部分投资者的吸引力下降。
