Sudden: The Fed's "dot chart" containing forecasts has been released-market expectations are as f

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Sudden: The Fed's "dot chart" containing forecasts has been released-market expectations are as f

2026-09-17 03:38:08

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美联储9月会议加息25个基点

在9月的会议上，美联储将其政策利率上调25个基点至3.75%至4.00%的区间。联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）的这一决定是全票通过的，投票结果为12比0。

美联储表示，此次加息有助于通胀更快地回归2%的目标，并补充称经济增长强劲，但通胀水平仍然偏高。

点阵图显示紧缩进程尚未结束

随同利率决定一同发布的点阵图显示，相当一部分美联储官员认为紧缩过程尚未完成。在18位美联储官员中，有12人预测到2026年底联邦基金利率将达到4.1%。这一预测意味着在当前水平之上还将进一步加息25个基点。

根据点阵图，四位官员预计还将进行两次额外的加息，预测年底利率约为4.4%；另有两位官员估计为3.9%，且今年不预期会有进一步的加息。因此，18位官员中有16位认为到年底前至少再加息一次是合适的。

长期预测与通胀预期上调

美联储的点阵图预测，到2027年底的政策利率中位数为4.1%，到2028年底为3.9%。长期联邦基金利率预测也从3.1%上调至3.2%。

此外，美联储还上调了其通胀预测。2026年总体PCE通胀预测上调至3.7%，核心PCE通胀预测上调至3.4%。

市场关注焦点

In the future, the focus of the market will be on the press conference of the Federal Reserve Chairman and his message on the dot chart's expectations for the timing of further interest rate hikes and the inflation outlook.

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