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美联储加息25个基点,华尔街保持平稳

2026-09-18 00:34:43
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美联储加息25个基点,华尔街表现稳健

美联储如期宣布加息25个基点,将基准利率目标区间上调至3.75%–4.00%。联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)12名成员全票赞成此次加息,这标志着美联储自2023年以来的首次利率调整,也正式结束了一段长期的政策稳定期。

强劲的企业基本面缓冲了加息影响

金融市场对这一消息的反应波澜不惊,波动极小。多位市场分析师指出,美国企业基本面的强劲韧性是股市在政策转向背景下保持稳定的关键原因。

雷蒙德·詹姆斯公司首席投资官拉里·亚当(Larry Adam)认为,此次加息不会对股市造成负面影响。他强调,美国企业展现出极强的韧性,其利润扎实、资产负债表健康,这些核心优势使企业有能力承受更高的借贷成本。“我不认为这些利率会对股票市场产生任何实质影响。”亚当在最近的一份报告中强调,坚实的基本面继续为股票提供保护,抵御潜在的利率相关风险。

其他专家也认同亚当的观点,指出消费支出和就业数据的平稳表明,尽管货币政策收紧,但更广泛的经济基础依然稳固。

美股在美联储加息周期中的历史韧性

瑞银(UBS)建议投资者减少对单次利率决策的关注,转而聚焦于经济增长、企业盈利和通胀等长期指标。该行的研究数据显示,美股在加息周期后展现出历史性的韧性。

回顾自1954年以来美联储经历的16次加息周期,瑞银观察到,在首次加息后的那一年,标普500指数平均涨幅达到10.8%。尽管分析师承认高利率带来的风险,但他们认为,单次加息本身并不构成投资者撤出股市的理由。瑞银的分析指出,美股在加息周期启动后历史上往往能提供强劲的回报,这表明市场参与者不应过度反应于政策变化。

科技巨头在高利率环境下驱动增长

市场观察人士还指出,大型科技公司是货币紧缩环境中的稳定力量。谷歌母公司Alphabet、亚马逊、微软和Meta等公司持续大量投资于数据中心和AI硬件等长期项目。它们主要依靠雄厚的现金储备而非依赖借贷来维持资本支出,这使得科技巨头能够不受短期利率波动的影响,保持高强度的投资力度。

目前,标普500指数的交易价格距离历史新高仅不到2%,这反映了对主要指数的持续信心,进一步佐证了企业基本面和战略投资有助于股市抵御货币政策变动。

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