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BTC On-chain data shows that the proportion of Bitcoin's UTXO losses has dropped significantly, and analysts believe that the bear market may have ended.
The proportion of Bitcoin's addresses in a state of loss has dropped sharply. Chain analyst Crypto Dan pointed out that historically, changes of this magnitude often mark the end of a bear market, rather than just a brief rebound.
This view was put forward after two macro shocks to the cryptocurrency market: one was the Federal Reserve's interest rate increase, and the other was the deadlock in the Senate vote on the CLARITY Act.
Why the data on the chain presents a different picture
The core of Crypto Dan's analysis is UTXO (unspent transaction output), which is the individual bitcoin fragment in the wallet, and how many UTXOs are currently worth less than the purchase cost of their holders. Data shows that this proportion has dropped significantly. Analysts pointed out that in past market cycles, declines of similar magnitude did not just bring a brief rebound, but ended the bear market completely.
"Looking back at previous market cycles, declines of this magnitude represent more than just short-term rallies," he wrote."They showed enough momentum to bring the bearish phase to an end and transition the market to a bullish cycle."
Although he views the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike and the blockage of the CLARITY Act as near-term risk factors, he believes these factors are not enough to reverse the shift that has taken place.
Price Range and History
Darkfost对链上数据的解读与此一致。比特币维持在71,300美元上方，这是一个仅计算市场中活跃流通单位的成本基准线。Darkfost指出，在2023年熊市接近尾声时，该水平曾两次受到测试，随后下一个周期便启动。
而在另一端，79,800美元是投入资本的盈亏平衡点。比特币在此位置屡遭拒绝，市场观察家也将这一模式追溯到2023年的同一时期。这使得比特币目前被困在这两个价位之间。
截至撰写本文时，BTC交易价格高于76,000美元，日内上涨约1%，但周跌幅近3%。若将视角拉远，情况则截然不同：尽管过去一年几乎下跌了35%，且较去年10月的历史新高低约39%，但该加密货币在过去一个月内仍上涨了19%。
交易量也有所降温，单日成交量下降近24%，至约295亿美元。
本周两大宏观事件对市场影响有限
Crypto Dan指出的两件事件均已发生。参议院于9月15日未能推进《CLARITY法案》，因未达到所需的60票。消息传出后，比特币一度下跌；次日美联储加息25个基点，这是三年来首次加息，但资产价格随后回升至76,000美元以上。
Bitwise首席投资官Matt Hougans表示，此次反弹与监管关系不大。他指出，在7月至9月中旬期间，尽管押注市场下调了《CLARITY法案》通过的几率（从39%降至18%），BTC仍上涨了约38%。
与此同时，交易者Matthew Hyland嘲笑那些预测失败投票和加息会导致比特币跌至50,000美元的言论，因为比特币当时仍维持在76,000美元附近。长期比特币倡导者David Bailey称，市场对利空消息反应平淡，这是熊市已结束的最有力迹象，他表示交易者目前处于“坏消息无关紧要”的阶段。
