Bitcoin prices exceed $87,000, but two well-known analysts predict market difficulties

比特币价格短暂触及87,000美元后回落，两位知名分析师观点分化

今日，比特币价格短暂触及87,000美元，随后在发稿时回落至约85,300美元。这一走势为交易者提供了重新评估BTC从近期低点强劲反弹的理由。此次反弹促使两位知名分析师采取了截然不同的立场。

CryptoCon此前一直认为比特币的熊市尚未结束，但他已公开承认自己的观点有误。与此同时，“Doctor Profit”表示他在86,200美元处建立了大量空头头寸，目标价位指向79,000美元。

这两位分析师并未断言比特币必须进入新一轮熊市。相反，他们的言论揭示了一个处于重要十字路口的市场：一位分析师正在重新考虑其周期预期，而另一位则准备在潜在的看涨趋势中应对可能的回调。

CryptoCon承认其对比特币熊市的预测错误

CryptoCon曾明确表示，他预期比特币的熊市将持续，并认为周期低点可能出现在11月至1月之间。然而，最新的反弹迫使他重新审视这一观点。

In a candid Platform X post, the analyst admitted that he was wrong about the persistence of the bear market and missed the opportunity to buy Bitcoin for around $60,000. He explained that although multiple indicators in his system point to potential bottoms and the beginning of a new bull market, he overemphasized the traditional cyclical time frame.

The accompanying chart explains why he changed his mind. The chart traces the market structure of Bitcoin from previous highs of approximately $124,000 and $126,000 through a series of declining highs and lows. After previous highs, BTC formed lower highs around $116,000 and $98,000, while its subsequent decline produced lows around $80,000,$60,000 and $58,000. This sequence establishes the downward trend tracked by CryptoCon.

The latest recovery has changed the picture. After bottoming out around $58,000, Bitcoin rebounded to the main resistance area of $80,000-$83,000. The region is particularly important because previous rallies stalled near $83,000 in May. As the price rises to $87,000, Bitcoin has exceeded its previous low highs.

CryptoCon's chart marks the new $87,000 peak in green, indicating that a higher high may exist. This is the first major signal that the early declining high pattern in the series may collapse. However, just a higher high does not guarantee a sustained upward trend. Bitcoin still needs to establish a higher low in subsequent pullbacks to strengthen bullish market structure arguments.

CryptoCon now believes the market is on track to confirm a trend reversal, but he is in no hurry to buy. He continued to wait and see and said he would wait for a better opportunity to enter. He also admitted that his hopes for a November-January cyclical low are becoming increasingly difficult to reconcile with current market structures. In other words, CryptoCon no longer sticks to its previous bearish forecast, but it also didn't become an active buyer at $85,000.

Doctor Profit builds a large bitcoin short position at $86,200

CryptoCon is re-examining its bearish outlook, but Doctor Profit is actively planning for a near-term correction. The analyst announced that he had opened a short position at $86,200, with a first target of $79,000.

He believes that market sentiment has changed dramatically since Bitcoin was traded near $60,000. Traders who had expected another sharp decline became more optimistic after recovering to $87,000. Doctor Profit believes that this mood change may create opportunities for pullbacks.

$BTC-I was heavily short at $86,200

Everyone expects a bottom in October. Then Bitcoin rebounded from 60K to 87K, and suddenly everyone started buying in FOMO (Fear of Missing), and we can agree that today almost everyone missed out and entered the market. Almost no one is looking forward to October now... - Doctor Profit

His trading strategy is built around Bitcoin's 50-week moving average, which he has previously pointed out as an important indicator of whether the market has entered a new bull market. Bitcoin recently regained that moving average, which Doctor Profit interpreted as a bull market signal.

Now he wants to see if BTC can successfully re-test the indicator from above. There are two possible outcomes for his plan: If the 50-week moving average holds firm as support, he intends to close his short positions and use the profits to buy more Bitcoin and Ethereum; if he fails to hold firm, he may keep short positions and pursue a lower price target.

Importantly, Doctor Profit stated that he did not sell the spot Bitcoin position purchased at around $60,000. As a result, his short position was a strategic bet on a correction rather than a complete reversal of his long-term bullish stance. His statements on positions and entry prices are self-reported.

Comparison of key issues

Dimension CryptoConDoctor Profit Current outlook Admit previous bearish forecasts erroneous expectations of recent corrections Current positions Stay on the sidelines in the cryptocurrency market Hold spot BTC and create new short positions What are they waiting for A better buying opportunity and confirmation of a new uptrend A retest of the 50-week moving average What might change their strategy? More evidence suggests that Bitcoin has established a moving average of bullish market structure as a solid or ineffective support level Long-term stance 重新评估其周期预期维持现有的现货敞口 比特币价格下一步去向何处？

两位分析师的观点使几个关键技术水平成为焦点。从报告的85,300美元价格来看，跌至79,000美元将代表约7.4%的下行空间。这样的走势并不会自动否定更广泛的复苏态势。

事实上，对79,000–83,000美元区域的成功重新测试，可能有助于确立CryptoCon图表中仍需要的更高低点，从而形成更具说服力的看涨反转。如果50周移动平均线被有力跌破，则会呈现不同的画面，削弱Doctor Profit的看涨支撑理论，并可能打开更深幅度回调的大门。

相反，如果比特币在其前阻力位上方企稳，并有效突破87,000美元，那么立即向79,000美元下跌的理由将变得不那么充分。

关键的区别在于，CryptoCon和Doctor Profit并没有做出相同的看跌预测。CryptoCon承认其之前的熊市展望是错误的，但希望获得更好的买入机会。Doctor Profit看到了短期的可能回调，同时保持了长期的现货敞口。

在比特币强力反弹之后，下一次回调（或缺乏回调）可能是证明市场是否已建立持久新上涨趋势的最清晰证据。