Today's gold and silver prices: Bond crisis is creating a strange market pattern

Gold and silver prices fall: Complex game behind rising bond yields

As bond yields rise, gold and silver prices also fall. Typically, higher yields make interest-paying assets more attractive than precious metals, so this initial market response is logical. However, what is confusing is what will happen to the market if yields continue to climb and investors lose confidence in the bonds themselves.

A strong U.S. business survey data adds another layer of complexity. The data shows continued economic growth and inflationary pressures, both of which could keep yields high. Currently, gold is stabilizing around $4,250 an ounce, while silver is close to the key support level it has defended many times. The next trend of these two metals will reveal which risks the current market is more concerned about.

Macroanalyst Sunil Reddy pointed out that the bond crisis may ultimately benefit gold and silver.

Macroanalyst Sunil Reddy believes that the decline in gold and silver prices during the bond crisis may be an "algo trap." He believes that automated trading strategies may sell gold when yields rise without taking into account the root causes of the rise in yields.

收益率上升可能是因为经济增长强劲，投资者预期利率将保持高位。这给黄金带来了挑战，因为黄金不产生利息。但收益率上升也可能是因为投资者正在抛售债券，并要求更高的补偿来持有它们。Reddy相信，第二种情况最终会增加对黄金和白银的需求。

在债券危机期间抛售黄金和白银是一个经典的算法陷阱。
算法被编程为在收益率上升时卖出黄金。
但当收益率上升是因为投资者对债券失去信心时，整个逻辑就会发生变化。
一场全面的债券危机将成为最大的……

— Macro Liquidity by Sunil Reddy (@Macrobysunil) 2026年9月24日

他的预期是，强制抛售和恐慌情绪可能会首先出现。如果债券信心进一步恶化，贵金属可能会出现更强劲的反弹。但这仍然只是他的预测，目前的图表尚未证实这种反转。

这一区别对时机选择至关重要。债券危机可能在长期内加强贵金属的投资理由，但如果上涨的收益率和强制销售主导交易，黄金和白银在早期阶段仍可能下跌。

The Kobeissi Letter指向增长与通胀压力

The Kobeissi Letter关注了标普全球（S&P Global）发布的9月美国商业调查数据。综合产出指数上升2.4点至58.4，创下自2021年7月以来的最高读数。该结果也标志着连续第四个月的增长改善。

服务业指数上升2.2点至58.7，制造业PMI上升3.1点至57.0。标普全球表示，除了疫情限制结束后的需求爆发外，最新的商业活动改善是自2015年初以来最强劲的。

这些增长数据伴随着The Kobeissi Letter强调的担忧。企业报告称供应链出现瓶颈、招工困难以及未完成订单积压。标普全球还报告称成本增长加快，部分原因是燃料和运输费用更高。

这种组合使得黄金和白银价格的前景变得艰难。强劲的增长和持续的通胀可能会使利率维持在高位，从而继续压制这两种金属的价格。不过，从长远来看，通胀压力也可能增强人们对贵金属的兴趣，特别是如果投资者对持有债券感到不安的话。

当前的局势中同时存在这两种可能性。价格图表为判断哪种力量占据主导地位提供了更直接的指引。

黄金价格在近期下跌后稳定在4,250至4,300美元区间

自周三晚间以来，黄金价格大部分时间徘徊在4,250至4,300美元之间。这一盘整发生在周二晚间从约4,368美元跌至周四早间约4,240美元之后，跌幅约为3%。

较小的波动范围表明目前的卖压有所缓解，但黄金仍处于下降通道内。观察黄金图表可知，买家首先需要突破4,300美元这一关键水平。若突破该点位，价格有望向通道顶部的4,330美元附近移动。

若跌破4,250美元，则可能指向4,230美元附近，即通道的下边界。这种情况将使近期的低点重新触手可及，并显示当前的盘整并未改变下行趋势。

主要关键水平如下：

• 高于4,300美元：黄金价格可能测试4,330美元附近的阻力位。
• 低于4,250美元：黄金价格可能向4,230美元附近的支撑位移动。

若能升至4,330美元，黄金将有机会挑战指导其下跌的通道结构。若再次回落至4,230美元附近，则表明卖方仍占据主导优势。如果没有新的重大消息推动突破，价格今天也可能维持在当前区间内。

Reddy关于债券危机的论点为后期的复苏提供了一种可能的解释。但在图表上使这一可能性更具说服力之前，黄金价格仍需先清除直接上方的阻力位。

白银价格逼近62美元支撑位，位于下降趋势线下方

Silver prices are currently trading around $63, which has brought renewed attention to the $62 support area. This level has been maintained in the past few tests. As long as buyers defend the area again, further pullbacks to this position may remain within silver's recent operating pattern.

A rebound from $62 may push silver back to the downtrend line near $66. Resistance near $67 above the line is the next obstacle. Silver needs to break through these two areas to more convincingly prove that its downward trend is over.

Unless major news pushes silver beyond the boundary, the expected trading range for the weekend is roughly $62 to $67. A fall below US$62 will weaken the support to curb recent declines. A rebound to $66 will test whether sellers are still active along the downtrend line.

FAQs

Is XAUUSD suitable for beginners?
XAU/USD (dollar-denominated gold) is usually not recommended for absolute novices because of its high volatility and leverage effects that can quickly drain funds from small accounts.

How high can silver rise in 2026?
Major financial institutions such as J.P. Morgan expect the average price of silver to be around $70 per ounce in 2026, while the fourth-quarter target price may fall back to around $63 after hitting a record high at the beginning of the year.