DOGE's market dominance drops to a record low, and prices approach US$0.076 support

DOGE continued to be under pressure, with a weekly decline of more than 5%

During Wednesday's trading, DOGE continued to face downward pressure, with its price remaining around US$0.090, recording a weekly decline of more than 5%. The decline continued a broader correction period that began in late September and reflected growing bearish sentiment on the leading meme token.

Short positions tighten, market sentiment deteriorates

Short positions against DOGE are intensifying. Data from data analysis firm CoinGlass showed that the long-short ratio has dropped to 0.68, a one-month low. When the ratio falls below 1.0, it means that there is an increase in short contracts relative to long positions, indicating that the market expects further price declines.

Other data from CryptoQuant also shows lingering market pressure. Aggressive selling by large holders (commonly known as "whales") has increased, leading to continued weakness in both the spot and futures markets.

Technical indicators show weakening bullish momentum

Currently, DOGE is trading below the 200-day exponential moving average (EMA), which is at US$0.093, a signal of weakening short-term momentum. Despite this, the token remains above the 50-day EMA ($0.088) and the 100-day EMA ($0.086), which serve as medium-term support levels.

The relative strength index (RSI) on the daily chart is about 48, close to the lower threshold of a neutral market, while the MACD indicator has turned slightly negative. Together, these two indicators suggest that upward momentum is being lost.

The key support area is at US$0.088, consolidated by the 50-day EMA and the horizontal price bottom. The $0.086 at the 100th EMA provides a second buffer. Analysts warned that if prices fall below $0.085, they could quickly fall to $0.070.

To reverse the bearish trend, DOGE needs to regain the resistance level of $0.093. Further gains will face an additional hurdle at $0.102, an area known for heavy selling pressure in previous transactions.

Technical analysts point out lower highs pattern

Well-known technical analyst Trader Tardigrade (@TATrader_Alan) points out that a series of lower highs is forming on the 8-hour chart. The analyst observed that DOGE was forming a pattern similar to its previous adjustment phase, repeatedly testing the same swing high areas.

"In the upward trend, always be prepared for SSL sweeps. The structure DOGE is now forming is very similar to the previous one, with lower highs repeatedly testing the previous swing highs area. Prices are being pushed back to recent lows, a key potential reversal or further decline level."

According to Trader Tardigrade, if DOGE cannot hold on to its recent swing lows, it may be trapped in the sideways trading range. However, if you can hold on, it may trigger another round of attempts to move to a higher level.

Daily Chart Pattern and Fibonacci Support

DOGE's daily chart reveals an expanding upward wedge, a technical structure defined by widening price volatility between two upward sloping trend lines. The upper bound of the wedge points to US$0.11, while the lower bound support is between US$0.090 and US$0.092. If this support breaks, traders expect the decline to accelerate to $0.0871.

This forecast level coincides with the recent rally of the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, indicating that a break below US$0.087 could trigger further losses. A deeper decline could touch $0.0828 (0.618 Fibonacci), while the $0.076-$0.077 zone corresponds to a drop of about 20% from current prices and a retracement of 0.786.

The RSI has slipped to 57, further highlighting the decline in bullish momentum. To technically negate the bearish outlook, there must be a decisive breakout, i.e. the price stands above $0.1055, beyond the upper bound of the wedge. Otherwise, the threat of extra selling remains significant.

Memecoin market share falls to record low

CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost pointed out that DOGE's weakness reflects a broader trend: compared with other altcoins, memecoin's market share has dropped to just 2.7%, setting a record low. The shift highlights the deepening differences between the memecoin sector and other altcoin sectors, as the issuance of new tokens dilutes overall liquidity and trading focus.

DOGE traded close to $0.0952 on October 6, but failed to maintain gains above $0.10 after rising in late September. Based on real-time data, DOGE closed at US$0.09085 in the most recent trading session, down 3.93% in the past 24 hours.

The sharp decline in memecoin's dominance over altcoins highlights the increasing market pressure on industry leaders such as DOGE. The continued issuance of new tokens has fragmented the market, making it difficult for DOGE to maintain past highs.

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CoinGlass and CryptoQuant: Two well-known cryptocurrency analysis companies, provide traders and investors with real-time market data and sentiment indicators, allowing them to analyze the trading behavior, market positioning and liquidity flows of major digital assets.