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BTC Bitcoin prices are under pressure due to tensions between the United States and Iran and the impact of the oil market
Due to the impact of tensions between the United States and Iran on the oil market, Bitcoin prices are once again facing downward pressure. On October 8, BTC fell below $83,000, setting its lowest point this month. At the same time, U.S. stocks retreated from record highs and bond yields rose sharply, further exacerbating selling pressure in the cryptocurrency market.
Why is oil price a risk factor for Bitcoin?
Iran's comments on oil shipments in the Strait of Hormuz have heightened concerns in the energy market. An adviser to the commander of Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps has warned that Iran will interfere with the flow of traffic on routes it considers illegal. The statement pointed out that the Strait of Hormuz has been closed and the Iranian armed forces have exercised full control of the area. Iranian officials said the current situation will continue as long as the country's demands are not met.
Affected by tensions, Brent crude oil prices rose to US$102 per barrel, and WTI crude oil prices rose to US$91. Higher oil costs could re-push global inflation expectations higher, exacerbating investor concerns about the outlook for interest rates.
Why are U.S. Treasury yields climbing?
As oil prices rose, the U.S. bond market also experienced sharp fluctuations. Treasury yields, sensitive to inflation and public debt, hit a 24-year high. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose to 5.36%, and the yield on the 30-year Treasury note reached 5.73%. High bond interest rates have made non-yielding digital assets such as Bitcoin less attractive to investors.
高盛固定收益、外汇及商品（FICC）及北美股票销售与交易联席主管穆罕默德·库巴吉（Muhammad Qubbaj）指出，只要能源价格维持高位且机构需求疲软，债券收益率可能继续承压。他表示，不断上涨的石油价格可能是决定长期利率的关键因素之一。
比特币需求为何走弱？
比特币未能突破约87,000美元的卖出流动性区域，显示出上涨动能减弱。CryptoQuant的数据表明，现货市场和期货市场的需求均出现下滑。
自9月22日以来，比特币在相似的价格区间内震荡，未平仓合约数量（Open Interest）下降了约10%，从288亿美元降至260亿美元。这一局面表明，投资者在当前价位上承担新风险的意愿较低。特别是现货需求的局限，意味着支撑加密货币持续上涨的强劲买方力量尚未形成。
哪些关键价位值得关注？
比特币跌破83,000美元，使得此前位于83,850美元的21日简单移动平均线（SMA）支撑失效，该位置曾是短期价格结构中的重要支撑点。
在更广泛的时间周期内，CryptoQuant估算短期比特币投资者的平均成本约为69,500美元。这一群体主要由持有时间不超过六个月的短期持有者组成。
In the current situation, investors should comprehensively pay attention to the impact of oil prices, bond yields and spot demand on the trend of Bitcoin. By tracking these dynamics, we can more accurately determine whether price actions around $83,000 are evolving into long-term adjustment trends.
This content does not constitute any investment advice. The market has high-risk characteristics, please conduct independent research before making an investment decision.
