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BTC The increase in Bitcoin's price has not yet fully reflected the entry of new funds. Analysis warns
Points:
- According to Glassnode data, as of October 5, the rolling 30-day cumulative net inflow of "new funds" into Bitcoin was US$4.9 billion.
- During this period, existing investors still accounted for 60%(three-fifths) of Bitcoin's realized market value growth.
- Short-term holders account for more than 80% of profit-taking above US$85,000.
Bitcoin capital inflows are not the main reason for the increase in market value
In the latest issue of its regular newsletter, The Week Onchain, cryptocurrency research platform Glassnode pointed out that Bitcoin's recent rise is mainly driven by existing holders.
So-called "new money" inflows into Bitcoin-including corporate treasury purchases,"stablecoin growth" and inflows into U.S. spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs)-totaled approximately $4.9 billion in the 30 days ending October 5. Bitcoin's realized market value (valuing each coin at its last move on the chain) increased by $12.8 billion, more than double the inflow of "new money" over the same period.
Glassnode commented: "As a result,'new funds' only covered less than two-fifths of this increase. The rest is a swap of existing funds in the market at a higher price." 
Comparison of new capital inflows and realized market value of Bitcoin (screenshot). Source: Glassnode#
Accompanying data shows that since the launch of the ETF in January 2024, the recent rebound in BTC/USD has shown a similar divergence. However, the current situation is different, and capital inflows remain moderate compared with short-term market value gains. Glassnode added: "The rebound in 2024 and 2025 shows a similar mixed pattern, but with much larger inflows." "Unless these inflows increase, progress in the market will depend on existing holders paying higher prices."
New investors surge in profit-taking near $85,000
Since September 21, Bitcoin has tried four times to break through $87,000. However, as buyers faced increasing liquidity of pending orders above the exchange's order book, every attempt ended in failure. As of Thursday writing, BTC/USD was hovering around $83,000, down 1% month-to-date.
Related reports: Bond selling resumed due to the situation in Iran, and Bitcoin prices fell to an October low of US$82,700.
Glassnode further pointed out that when Bitcoin closed above US$85,000 for the first time this weekend, profit-taking behavior by buyers increased significantly recently. "About 86% of all bitcoins sent to the exchange that day came from short-term holders (holding for less than 155 days) and they were transferring them on a profitable basis. That's the highest proportion for any day in the past year; on a typical day, it's less than two-fifths." 
Bitcoin Short-Term Holders (STH) Profit-Taking Data (screenshot). Source: Glassnode#
Traditionally, short-term holders have been considered more sensitive to price fluctuations. Data shows that as of October 7, the group is still in net profit, and its total cost basis (also known as the realized price) is still approximately US$78,250. The data source is CryptoQuant. 
Bitcoin realization price by trading age for short-term holders. Source: CryptoQuant#
