比特币价格较一年前下跌25%：你现在可以做什么

An annual analysis of the gains and losses, as well as taxes, for those who bought Bitcoin on October 14, 2025

Investors who bought Bitcoin on October 14, 2025, now face a price level that is approximately one-quarter lower than the cost at which they entered the market. A year ago, on October 14, 2025, the price of Bitcoin was $115,226 (approximately €99,310). By Wednesday afternoon, the price has dropped to $82,709 (approximately €74,239). This means a decrease of 28.2% in terms of USD, and 25.2% in terms of EUR. For investors holding positions at this specific point in time, the one-year speculation period stipulated by German tax laws has now expired. What has changed isn’t the price itself, but rather the underlying calculation logic behind it.

The above data comes from the daily price series provided by CoinGecko. During the same period, the Deribit futures index closed at $82,844, which is $135 higher than the spot price. A difference of 0.16% is within acceptable range, indicating a close connection between the spot market and the futures market during calm trading days.

Year-over-year comparison: from €99,310 to €74,239

At first glance, year-over-year comparison may seem like a simple accounting exercise. But in Germany, it determines whether certain tax regulations still apply when selling assets. It also provides a more accurate reflection of the overall situation compared to daily fluctuations.

These three figures are not contradictory. They simply represent different time periods. Monthly data indicates a recovery in the latter part of the summer season, while annual data reflects the downturns during the winter and spring months. When looking at individual days, the market seems to be stagnant; when considering an entire year, the market appears to have failed. Neither perspective fully captures the actual situation.

Since the one-year low point on July 1, prices have rebounded by 41.4%. However, compared to the historical high point on October 6, 2025, the current level is still 34.4% lower. Both ranges fall within the same twelve-month period.

Why is the loss in euro amounts smaller than that of USD?

There is a difference of three percentage points between the two loss figures. This difference has nothing to do with Bitcoin itself, but rather stems from changes in exchange rates. As of October 2025, one euro is worth approximately 1.16 US dollars; currently, one euro is worth around 1.114 US dollars. The dollar has strengthened relative to the euro, meaning that assets denominated in dollars result in smaller losses for Germany.

This difference isn’t due to technical factors; tax authorities calculate using euros. If German investors calculate their profits and losses based on the dollar value displayed on the trading interface, the results will differ from those shown in their tax returns. What matters is the euro value at the time of purchase and sale.

A specific example can illustrate this difference. Suppose someone invested 10,000 euros a year ago. Today, that amount is worth approximately 7,475 euros. In terms of dollars, 11,600 dollars have become roughly 8,330 dollars. The loss calculated in dollars is about 300 euros higher than the actual loss shown in the tax return.

Annual cycles show that the value of one year compared to other years is not consistent.

The highest price reached on October 6, 2025, is over a year old. That high price was 126,080 dollars. Since last Tuesday, this record has lasted for more than twelve months. The highest price in the past 365 days was 114,419 dollars, which was recorded on October 27, 2025. This price is now lower than the previous record.

This indicates that the market hasn’t seen any new highs over the past year. This situation has occurred multiple times throughout Bitcoin’s history, with varying durations. It doesn’t predict what will happen in the coming months, but it does reflect expectations: those who hoped to see rapid record-breaking moments since the fall of 2025 have had to wait longer than most schedules allow.

In 366 days, the closing price was below today’s level on 236 days. This makes the comparison interesting when viewed in terms of year-over-year trends. Out of the past 366 days, the closing price was lower than today’s level on 236 days, accounting for 64.5%. Therefore, the current price is not considered weak within the year; only about one-third of the days have seen prices below this level. This finding seems to contradict the 25% loss reported. Both statements are correct, as they address different issues. Year-over-year comparisons measure two points, while daily statistics measure the overall trend over time. Those who bought Bitcoin last year were able to capture one of the most expensive entry points during that period. The 200-day moving average, located at $72,204, has changed significantly since October 11th. The 200-day moving average represents the average closing price of the past 200 trading days and is used to smooth out outliers. Many market participants consider it a dividing line between bull and bear markets. Currently, the moving average is $72,204, which is 14.7% higher than yesterday’s price. In the analysis on October 11th, this gap was 15.4%. Since then, the gap has narrowed by 0.7 percentage points, but this isn’t due to a significant drop in prices, but rather because the moving average continues to rise. The moving average is gradually removing the low prices of early summer from the picture, even in a sideways market. According to Tuesday’s market reports, Bitcoin was priced at $83,200, showing a clear relative strength compared to Solana. This advantage remains, with the gap only slightly narrowing: Bitcoin has fallen by 0.4% in the past seven days, while Solana has fallen by 8.97%. The 50-day moving average, located at $81,190, serves as the next support level.位置更近的是位于81,190美元的50日均线。价格仅高出其2.0%。使其成为衡量回调的第一个水平，并在近几周多次受到测试。

如果您使用杠杆，请在开仓前知晓此数值。五倍杠杆下，20%的跌幅足以导致清算；十倍杠杆下，10%的跌幅即可。从当前水平到200日均线的跌幅为12.8%。从算术角度看，十倍杠杆的头寸无法承受如此幅度的移动。查看您的清算价格表，找到在最坏情况下唯一重要的数字。

期货市场波动率预期显示的内容

期权交易所Deribit的波动率指数（简称DVOL）衡量期货市场为未来30天定价的波动范围。目前为38.44点。10月3日为35.36点；过去90天它在33.59至43.41之间波动。因此，预期已上升了11天，但仍处于中间范围。

DVOL上升而价格几乎不动，意味着在对冲成本增加之前没有任何重大变动。最直接的原因是日历因素：美国消费者价格指数将于周三公布，且美国联邦储备委员会将于10月28日周三决定关键利率。这两个日期均落在指数覆盖的时间窗口内。

德国所得税法第23条的一年期限制与1,000欧元阈值

在德国，作为私人资产的比特币持有属于《所得税法》第23条规定的私人处置交易。如果购入和出售之间不超过一年，收益需缴税。一旦超过一年，出售不再属于私人处置交易，收益免税。

联邦财政部2025年3月6日发布的指导函取代了2022年5月10日的版本，并确认了这一立场。它还明确指出，十期的延长不适用于支付代币（如比特币），即使持仓通过借贷或质押产生收入也是如此。

在一年内，每个日历年度适用1,000欧元的免税额。阈值意味着：如果达到或超过，全部收益均需缴税，而不仅仅是超出部分。该阈值适用于一年的所有私人处置交易之和，包括黄金或其他代币。

该制度的不利一面涉及亏损。私人处置交易的亏损只能通过与同年的收益、以前年度的结转或无限期结转来抵消。然而，如果在一年后亏损出售，则超出了第23条的范围。此时没有应税收益，因此也没有可抵消的亏损。对于2025年10月这一批次的持仓，截至今天正是这种情况。

税务局如何确定购入顺序

很少有投资者只在某一天买入。对于这些投资者来说，顺序决定了哪些单位被视为已售出。如果单个单位无法明确分配，财政部指导函规定，出于持有期的目的，最早购入的比特币被视为最先处置。这种方法称为先进先出（FIFO）。

在实践中这意味着：如果在2025年10月和2026年7月分别买入，今天卖出部分，您将先放弃旧的部分。这些部分持有已超过一年，因此免税，同时也携带不可抵消的亏损。2026年7月购买的便宜部分留在持仓中，直到2027年7月才免税。如果不了解此顺序，您可能会围绕自身的税负进行规划。

清晰的文档记录是前提条件。对于每次购买，您需要日期、数量和购入时的欧元等价物，以及每次出售的相同详细信息。如果您的持仓分散在多个交易所和钱包中，请在交易前汇总这些数据，而不是在春季填写Anlage SO表格时再处理。

我们对10月28日美联储会议前的评估

The editorial team believes that the current situation is somewhat weaker than what the comparative figures suggest. However, it still isn’t as stable as the 7.08% monthly growth that was promised. There are three verifiable points that support this view. First, the price is currently 64.5% higher than the highest daily closing price of the past year. Second, there is a significant buffer between the current price and the 14.7% difference from the 200-day moving average. Third, the price range has tightened from 35.36 to 38.44 points, and this change occurred before any uncertain dates were determined.

In contrast, the 50-day moving average, which stands at around $81,190, is only 2.0% lower than the current price. If the price drops below this level, the next supportive level will be 12.8% lower. This assessment is merely an evaluation of the situation, not a trading recommendation. Cryptocurrency assets carry the risk of total loss.

The cost of selling includes fees

. Anyone who wishes to sell after calculating these costs will encounter another cost unrelated to the price. Fees for Bitcoin vary greatly among different trading platforms. For amounts in the four-digit range, the savings from reduced fees quickly outweigh the value of any price changes over one hour.

One of the issues in this comparison is whether the balance needs to be sold. Transferring it to self-custody won’t trigger any taxes, as there is no actual disposal involved. However, this doesn’t change the duration of holding the asset, as the duration depends on the act of purchasing, not the location where it is stored.

What will happen to Bitcoin in one year? If the price falls below $72,200, the situation will change.

The year since October 14, 2025 has been quite remarkable. The entry point at 99,310 euros was one of the most expensive entries during that period. Nevertheless, today’s levels are still higher than those in two-thirds of all days throughout the year. What will be crucial in the coming weeks is whether the 200-day moving average of 72,204 dollars can be maintained.

There are three steps you can take to manage your positions effectively:

1. Record the purchase dates and euro equivalents for each position, and check which positions have exceeded their one-year expiration date.
2. Before selling any positions, compare the fees charged by different platforms.
3. If you wish to continue building positions and delay making initial investments, consider paying for them in installments rather than making a lump-sum payment.

This article does not constitute legal advice. It is recommended that you consult with a tax advisor to assess your individual situation. (As of October 14, 2026. This article does not provide investment advice. Prices and fees may change; please verify the terms with the provider before purchasing.)