U.S. inflation data is in line with expectations, Ethereum is rising

Ethereum prices soared after U.S. inflation data was released

With the release of U.S. inflation data, Ethereum prices rose sharply by 7.46% to hit US$2619. Tom Lee, co-founder of Fundstrat and chairman of BitMine, mentioned the possibility of a "brutal rebound" in risky assets, but his forecast is broader and does not set specific targets for ETH.

Summary of Core Points

• Affected by U.S. inflation data, Ethereum prices rose 7.46% to US$2619.
• Tom Lee pointed out that risky assets may rebound sharply, but did not set a specific target price for ETH.
• BitMine holds 5.93 million ETH units, accounting for approximately 4.9% of the supply cited in its disclosure documents.
• The company has pledged 5.07 million ETH and continues to implement a weekly buying strategy.
• Inflation and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy remain key factors determining market trends.

Inflation and Federal Reserve policy drove Ethereum rebound

During the trading session on September 11, Ethereum closed up 7.46% on the day, and the price stabilized at around US$2619, bringing the cumulative weekly increase to 6.62%. The rebound comes after investors were generally cautious over several trading days. The market responded positively to the release of U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) data.

Data showed that the year-on-year inflation rate in the United States in August was 3.4%, in line with market expectations. However, prices rose 0.4% month-on-month, and core inflation rose 0.3% month-on-month. The main statistics are as follows:

• ETH rose 7.46% in a single day to reach US$2619;
• The cumulative increase in seven days was 6.62%;
• The U.S. year-on-year inflation rate reached 3.4% in August;
• The core inflation index rose 0.3% month-on-month.

Investors took a defensive stance ahead of the release of this data. Since there were no negative surprises, funds flowed back into the crypto market. Short traders may also close their positions to limit losses, further accelerating the price rise.

This mechanism is similar to what traders call a "short squeeze." It manifested as a rapid rise that caught bears off guard and forced them to buy, pushing prices higher.

Tom Lee's predictions are not limited to Ethereum

Tom Lee believes that excessive caution in the market has created the conditions for a significant rebound. "The probability of a poor outcome is reduced and could trigger a sharp rise," Fundstrat wrote in an analysis of investor positions ahead of the release of the inflation data.

This statement is not just about Ethereum. Fundstrat's analysis covers a wider range of risky asset areas such as stocks and cryptocurrencies. Due to the recent strength of the cryptocurrency market and Tom Lee's direct connection with BitMine, this analysis is closely related to ETH.

Analysts have not released any specific price targets for ETH or confirmed technical points for sustained recovery. Therefore, the current market may only be a mitigating rebound and may not necessarily mark the beginning of a new bull market cycle.

In addition, the persistence of inflation still poses a risk. If prices continue to rise, it will prompt the Federal Reserve to maintain restrictive monetary policy or further increase interest rates. This scenario could put pressure on non-fixed-income assets, including cryptocurrencies.

BitMine now holds 4.9% of Ethereum's total supply

Given Tom Lee's position as chairman of BitMine, his position deserves special attention. BitMine is one of the largest corporate vaults in the Ethereum space. As of September 7, the company held 5.93 million ETH units, approximately 4.9% of the reference supply cited in its filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission.

BitMine has pledged 5.07 million ETH units, accounting for nearly 85% of its reserves. Based on an annual yield of 2.61%, the company estimates annualized revenue from this operation to be approximately US$330 million. It should be noted that this amount is only a forecast value and is sensitive to changes in cryptocurrency prices and network yields.

Tom Lee said: "BitMine has been purchasing ETH every week since launching its treasury strategy on June 30, 2025." In the week before its announcement, the company purchased 28,086 ETH units.

These acquisitions reduce the amount of ETH automatically circulating in the market, especially when contemporary coins are pledged. However, this does not guarantee that prices will inevitably rise. Investor demand, Fed policies and the evolution of the overall market will continue to play a decisive role.

To sum up, Ethereum's rebound to $2619 supports a "mitigating rebound" scenario in the short term. However, to achieve a sustained upward trend, new spot buying (such as BitMine's continued purchases) and a more relaxed policy environment are still needed.