Bitcoin: Option signals signal a steady return to optimism

After twelve months of cautious wait-and-see, Bitcoin options traders turn optimistic

Since August 20, the cost of betting on BTC rises has exceeded the cost of hedging against downside risks, a shift unprecedented in the past year. The current Bitcoin price is about US$78,278, well below the high of more than US$126,000 set in October 2025. Combined with the dominance of call options, increased futures holdings and a betting strategy concentrated below $100,000, the derivatives market showed renewed but cautious optimism.

Quick overview of core points

• After twelve months of cautious wait-and-see, Bitcoin options traders are back on their bullish mood.
• Call options dominate, accounting for 61.39% of the total open interest.
• The value of open interest in Bitcoin futures reached US$52.64 billion.
• Bullish bets are mainly concentrated in the US$78,000 to US$100,000 range, indicating that the market remains cautiously optimistic.

Options market: Bullishness prevails

最清晰的信号来自“25-delta偏斜”（25-delta skew）指标，该指标用于比较具有可比市场敞口的看涨期权和看跌期权的价格。据Derive数据显示，这一波动率偏好在8月20日转为正值。交易者现在愿意为允许参与比特币上涨行情的看涨期权支付更高的溢价，而不是购买作为下跌保护工具的看跌期权。因此，这一转变标志着此前长达十二个月的市场谨慎情绪被打破。

未平仓头寸的数据证实了这一解读。目前，看涨期权代表305,530.06 BTC，占未平仓合约总额的61.39%；而看跌期权为192,126.29 BTC，占比38.61%。这种差距在24小时交易量中也清晰可见：看涨期权交易量为18,892.23 BTC，高于看跌期权的12,497.93 BTC。9月份的持仓比例约为每1份看跌期权对应1.8份看涨期权。这种不对称性反映了市场更为激进的态度，但这并不构成对BTC必然上涨的确切预测。

以下三项数据总结了比特币期权持仓的转变：

• 未平仓合约中，看涨期权占比61.39%，看跌期权占比38.61%；
• 24小时内，看涨期权交易量达18,892.23 BTC，看跌期权为12,497.93 BTC；
• 9月份持仓比例达到约1.8份看涨期权对应1份看跌期权。

期货持仓量达526.4亿美元

Futures markets provide another dimension to measure Bitcoin derivatives activity. Its total open interest reached 676,820 BTC, or approximately US$52.64 billion, an increase of 2.33% from 24 hours ago. Among them, Binance holds 142,870 BTC, worth US$11.11 billion, accounting for 21.1% of the total; the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) follows closely, holding 108,630 BTC, worth US$8.45 billion. Other major platforms include: Gate ($4.94 billion), Bybit ($4.83 billion), MEXC ($4.39 billion) and OKX ($2.78 billion).

The magnitude of change between platforms is not uniform. In 24 hours, Binance's open interest increased by 1.66%, CME increased by 1.41%, and Gate fell by 3.03%. BingX's performance was particularly outstanding, with an increase of 80.18%. In the short term, as open interest fell 0.30% in 1 hour and 0.15% in 4 hours, the overall momentum weakened. These data describe a trend of increasing intraday positions, but do not show uniform progress across all platforms and observed time frames.

$70,000 to $100,000 Range: Trader Planning Scenario

The preferred strike price helps clarify the specific meaning of this return to optimism. For contracts due in December, Derive records show approximately US$710 million is positioned at US$80,000, and another US$530 million is positioned at US$100,000. On the Deribit platform, the $70,000 call option expiring on September 25 has a concentration of 10,956.7 BTC, ahead of the $85,000 call option of 9,492.8 BTC and the $70,000 put option of 9,426.8 BTC. In addition, call options of $90,000,$80,000,$100,000 and $82,000 are also among the main positions.

Thus, this distribution creates a limited optimism. Bullish bets in September were concentrated between $78,000 and $100,000, while bearish protection was more concentrated in the $60,000 and below area. Some traders see the possibility of returning to the October 2025 high of $126,000 as almost zero. At CME, there are still more puts than calls, and although options open interest has recovered from summer lows, they are still below levels at the end of 2025.

A positive shift in volatility preference alone is not enough to announce a surge in Bitcoin prices. For the Deribit contract expiring on September 25, which represents a nominal value of approximately $15 billion, the maximum pain point is approximately $72,000, while the maximum pain point for the contract expiring on December 25 is close to $71,000. At Binance, that level hovered around $75,000 in September.

After twelve months of cautious wait-and-see, the options market did change its direction of preference. However, its position data suggests that participants are currently leaning towards a cautious bullish scenario rather than a quick return to BTC's previous highs.