美联储加息背景下比特币依然坚挺

Bitcoin tenaciously held on to the US$75,000 defense line after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates. Are bull market signals emerging?

Even though Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh announced a 25 basis point increase in U.S. interest rates on Wednesday, Bitcoin managed to withstand the bad news and miraculously stayed above the key support level of $75,000. Can Bitcoin prices maintain their current sideways consolidation pattern, or is it just a matter of time before they fall sharply?

S & P 500 Index: Interest rate hikes lead to a downward breakthrough in the bull flag pattern

The above four-hour chart shows the U.S. stock market's reaction to Wednesday's announcement of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike. A well-formed "bull flag" pattern broke downward, and the index once fell below the lower edge of the flag shape, then gained support and rebounded near the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), which is extending upward to carry prices. As the chart shows, as of the close, the index had almost returned to the flag-shaped lower-trend line position. If the market opens strongly on Thursday, it may be just a quick fake breakthrough; but if it fails and a 25-basis point rate hike does suppress stocks, a breakthrough at the bottom of the flag may be confirmed before prices go further. For investors seeking to re-enter investment, the upper trend line of the multi-year channel chart may be an ideal entry point.

Bulls hold on to their positions, and the market trend warms up

Parallel channels have been redrawn to cover most Bitcoin price movements. It can be observed from this short-term time frame that despite repeated long down-hatches, bulls are determined to maintain prices above the bottom of the channel at US$75,600. As Bitcoin prices broke through the resistance level of US$76,300 and found strong support above the 200th SMA, the previously extremely bearish situation began to reverse and turned into a more positive trend.

The daily level bull flag is complete, and the "golden cross" signal appears

Looking at the daily chart of Bitcoin, it can be seen that the flag-shaped pattern formed at the top of the surge remains complete. Wednesday's rally from the flag-shaped downtrend line looked very strong. If prices can remain above this key line of defense and continue to consolidate, the probability of an upward breakthrough will increase.

Another bullish factor is the recent penetration of the 50-day SMA through the 200-day SMA, which is known as the "golden fork". This usually occurs at or near the bottom of a bear market. The last time these two moving averages crossed was after the peak of the bull market, when the opposite happened, with the 50-day SMA breaking below the 200-day SMA.

Can the 50-week moving average be support for a new bull market?

In the weekly time frame, the 50-week simple moving average (SMA) has provided support throughout the previous bull market, with Bitcoin prices closing below this moving average for the first time just after the peak of the bull market. Currently, the 50-week SMA is providing strong resistance. If this resistance is broken and prices turn the moving average into support again, it will be another strong sign that the bear market is over.

At the bottom of the chart, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows a 2.5-year downtrend line. The indicator line has broken through the trend line. If the trend line can be confirmed as a support level, it will be another nail in the coffin that will bury the bear market.

Whether Bitcoin prices can hold the bottom of the flag is crucial-the start of a new bull market depends on this.