Solstice首席执行官：加密货币的繁荣与萧条周期正在失去动力

Solana DeFi executives: The era of "boom and bust" in the crypto market is fading away

Ben Nadareski, CEO of Solstice, the Solana Ecological Decentralized Finance (DeFi) project, said that as liquidity deepens across trading venues-even during market downturns-the long-standing extreme cyclical characteristics of the cryptocurrency market may be fading. In an interview with Cointelegraph's "Chain Reaction" program, he pointed out that a broader participant base and a more robust market infrastructure have reduced the conditions that have historically amplified sharp price fluctuations.

Nadareski also positions cryptocurrencies as a destination for institutional capital and mainstream wealth, rather than just a venue for speculative trading. Although he warned against a repeat of the turmoil of the past, he pointed to data showing that volatility in major markets such as Bitcoin has shown a downward trend as trading volume increases and market depth increases.

Summary of core views

• Reduced volatility and deepening liquidity: Nadareski attributed the decrease in volatility to deepening liquidity in major transactions, and noted that this improvement was particularly evident during bear markets.
• Data support: Reports from blockchain data analysis company Glassnode and asset management company Fasanara Digital pointed out that Bitcoin's one-year volatility has dropped significantly in 2025. The report believes that part of the reason is the increase in market depth and the expansion of institutional participation.
• Spot trading volume expands: 与上一个市场周期相比，比特币现货日均交易量扩展至更高的区间，这与更具流动性的市场结构相一致。
• 稳定币增长预期： Nadareski预计，Solana上的稳定币市场规模目前约为160亿美元，未来五年内有望接近1000亿美元。
• 稳定币的主导地位： 稳定币在交易中日益占据核心地位。引用CEX.IO的数据显示，截至2026年第一季度，稳定币占总交易量的比例高达75%。

为何更深的流动性能抑制旧有的周期效应

Nadareski的核心论点基于结构性因素：当市场流动性更充裕时，市场往往能以更温和的方式吸收买卖压力，从而避免剧烈的重新定价。他在节目中强调，主要加密货币交易对的流动性显著增加，包括在熊市期间，这降低了早期周期中常见的剧烈震荡发生的可能性。

他的评论突显了一个对投资者至关重要的转变。当波动率由薄弱的订单簿和拥挤的头寸驱动时，清算和强制抛售的连锁反应会导致价格加速变动。相比之下，更深度的市场可以通过改善执行效率和限制突发的流动性缺口，减少此类反馈循环的严重性。

“我们不想重演2017年，也不想重演2021年，更不想经历这些巨大的波动。”Nadareski说道，他将目标设定为一个虽然偶尔仍有波动，但不易出现极端破坏性走势的市场。

比特币数据印证低波动率叙事

Nadareski的观点得到了来自Glassnode和Fasanara Digital等机构市场数据的支撑。这两家公司在2025年12月的一份报告中发现，比特币的一年期已实现波动率从84.4%降至43%。他们认为，这一部分降幅归因于“不断增长的市场深度和机构参与度”。

报告还强调了通常伴随流动性加深的活动。根据Glassnode的研究总结，比特币现货日均交易量从前一个市场周期的40亿至130亿美元区间，增加至80亿至220亿美元区间。

此外，Cointelegraph此前的报道提到，SkyBridge Capital管理合伙人Anthony Scaramucci在3月曾表示，由于机构投资者和比特币现货ETF的资金流入，比特币的四年周期已被“钝化”——尽管他认为传统的周期动力学并未完全消失。综合来看，现状并非波动率消失，而是随着参与者和交易机制的演变，其驱动因素正在发生变化。

Solana稳定币增长：迈向千亿美元之路

Nadareski also looked at the stablecoin space, predicting rapid expansion of Solana's stablecoin market. He said that thanks to the increasing adoption of fintech companies and the advantages of high transaction speed and low fees of Solana network, the value of stable coins on Solana may exceed $50 billion in the next five years and approach $100 billion.

To support this prediction, the article cited DefiLama data showing that Solana stablecoin is currently valued at about $16 billion. The gap between the current level and the potential $100 billion target reflects both the macro logic of broader stablecoin adoption and specific optimism about Solana's ability to attract payments and on-chain settlement use cases.

The practical significance for traders and liquidity providers is that stablecoins are increasingly becoming the "working capital" of the crypto market. The supply and trading behavior of stablecoins affect the speed at which capital rotates between spot and derivatives, as well as the availability of liquidity under market pressure.

stablecoins as market fuel, not secondary components

The importance of stablecoins is not limited to a single blockchain. The article quoted data from CEX.IO and pointed out that in the first quarter of 2026, stablecoins accounted for 75% of the total cryptocurrency trading volume, setting a record high, while the transaction volume exceeded US$28 trillion.

这一点至关重要，因为更高比例的稳定币份额通常意味着更多的交易量是由流动性强、挂钩美元的资产支持的。理论上，这有助于更顺畅的执行，并帮助市场在不同价格 regime（体制/阶段）下保持流动性。与此同时，稳定币的增长也可能集中某些风险——例如对发行和储备结构的依赖——尽管原始材料中未对此机制进行详细阐述。

在更广泛的市场结构中，更深的流动性、机构参与以及稳定币支持的交易的结合表明，今天的加密市场可能比早期散户主导的混乱时期更接近传统资本市场的行为模式。

后续关注重点

接下来需要观察的是，随着市场参与者在牛市和熊市阶段测试新的流动性条件，已实现波动率的下降和现货容量的扩张是否能持续。在稳定币方面，读者应关注Solana上的增长是否与Nadareski的多年度预测保持一致，以及稳定币在交易中的主导地位是继续扩大还是趋于正常化。