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HYPER Bitcoin fell to around $83,100, soaring U.S. bond yields put pressure on risky assets
As rising U.S. bond yields put pressure on risky assets, Bitcoin prices have slipped to the lower edge of the recent trading range and are currently fluctuating around $83,100. Previously, rising yields suppressed market risk appetite ahead of the release of major U.S. economic data.
Macro Environment: Ten-year U.S. Treasury yields hit new highs since 2007
Currently, the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasury bonds has reached 5.27%, the highest level since 2007. Investors are reassessing interest rate expectations around the world. At the same time, rising oil prices, inflation concerns and market expectations for further tightening of the Fed's policy have combined to put pressure on the market.
Bitcoin fell less than 1% on Tuesday in Asia after benchmark yields climbed to multi-year highs on Monday. In previous rallies, Bitcoin had been close to $84,000, and last week it hit $87,000. Affected by this, other mainstream crypto assets also saw corrections: Zcash fell about 12% to US$1,380, Solana and Hyperliquid fell 3%-4%, Dogecoin fell 3%, BNB fell 2%, and XRP fell nearly 2%.
As traders prepare for another round of U.S. economic data, the total market value of cryptocurrencies remains at around US$2.86 trillion. Higher bond yields continue to put macro pressure on Bitcoin by increasing returns on government debt and tightening financial conditions. In addition, the yield on 30-year U.S. bonds is also close to its highs in the early 2000s.
Technical Analysis: Key Support and Resistance Game
从日线图来看，比特币在未能 sustained（持续）突破87,000美元后，目前在83,000-84,000美元区域交易。相对强弱指数（RSI）位于62.14附近，处于中性水平50之上，但未达到超买阈值70。该读数略低于63.32附近的RSI移动平均线，表明近期上涨动能有所减弱。
MACD指标呈现出类似态势。MACD线约为2,221，信号线约为2,234，柱状图略呈负值，约为-13。尽管两条线均远高于零轴，但微小的看跌交叉显示短期上行动能正在减弱。
此前分析指出，83,600美元区域是重要的比特币支撑位。当前价格正在测试这一区域。分析师Rekt Capital表示，比特币已完成了对前60,000-80,000宏观区间上边界的周线收盘突破。他称当前向突破区域的回撤是一次“定义趋势”的重新测试。若维持突破状态，将保留更高区间的结构；若持续跌破前区间边界，比特币将回归至近期反弹前的盘整区域。
值得注意的是，尽管面临回调，比特币仍远高于8月中期的63,000-65,000美元水平。日线结构继续呈现更高的高点和更高的低点，但在86,000-87,000美元附近的拒绝导致比特币重回盘整。
衍生品市场：未平仓合约下降，清算集群集中在85,300美元
衍生品持仓数据显示，随着比特币横盘整理，杠杆资金正撤离市场。市场分析指出，比特币期货未平仓合约已连续一周以上下降。这种收缩包括高杠杆多头头寸的清算以及未平仓空头头寸的减少。
虽然空头头寸减少并不保证价格必然反弹，但分析师认为，较少的看跌头寸减少了持续的卖压来源之一。分析师CrypNuevo指出，比特币已经扫清了局部支撑下方的止损订单，并可能试图再次向85,000美元推进。新的清算集中区域出现在85,300美元附近。
该地区与近期市场数据中识别出的阻力位重叠。此前报道显示，比特币在从周高点回落时，在85,000-85,800美元区间面临集中的卖单。若能突破85,300-85,800美元，近期87,000美元区域将重新成为焦点；若无法收复85,000美元中段，则每日图表上最近的可见支撑区将位于82,000-83,000美元。
链上数据：币安储备下降，USDT流动性保持高位
交易所储备数据提供了当前比特币格局的另一侧面。CryptoQuant分析师Amr Taha报告称，币安的比特币储备从9月21日的约701,000 BTC降至9月28日的678,000 BTC。这一降幅约为23,000 BTC，即3.3%。以太坊储备也朝同一方向变动，从9月19日的约365万ETH降至9月28日的约354万ETH，降幅约为11万ETH或3%。
然而，币安的USDT储备并未以相同速度收缩，仍保持在381亿美元左右。分析师表示，下一个观察点是稳定币余额是被闲置还是开始流向现货加密货币购买。仅凭交易所余额下降本身并不能确定持有者是打算出售、持有还是在平台与私人钱包之间转移资产。
更早的币安数据显示出不同的月度模式。在八月，币安用户增加了超过16,000 BTC的比特币持仓，而以太坊和USDT用户余额则有所下降。
对于近期的比特币价格格局，交易者需在9月30日PCE数据发布之际，面对测试83,000美元支撑、85,300美元附近的清算流动性以及美债收益率仍处于数十年高位的复杂局面。
