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Major cryptocurrency correction, traders wait for Fed signal

Bitcoin, Ethereum, Ripple and Dogecoin all saw a correction as traders in Asian and global markets took a cautious stance ahead of the latest Fed meeting minutes. At least one analyst pointed out that if the Fed sends a dovish signal, Bitcoin's path back to $100,000 could resurface.

Pre-adjustment pattern before macro events

On the eve of the release of the Federal Reserve minutes, all four major tokens recorded declines. This correction reflects a recurring pattern in 2026: crypto markets tend to pre-position positions in advance of high-impact macroeconomic events rather than react afterwards. For Southeast Asian traders on platforms such as Indodax and Tokocrypto, this move occurred during Asian trading hours.

The Federal Reserve releases the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting in accordance with the established timetable. The FOMC calendar shows future release dates, and traders around the world increasingly view these publications as triggers for short-term fluctuations in risky assets, including cryptocurrencies. This pre-emptive caution is very common in the ASEAN crypto market. Previously, when the Federal Reserve adjusted interest rates, Bitcoin and Ripple fluctuated violently within a few hours on regional exchanges. Retail traders in Southeast Asia typically hold a higher proportion of altcoins than institutional portfolios, so they tend to face amplified short-term fluctuations during such windows.

Why Federal Reserve Minutes Can Influence Crypto Market Sentiment

What Traders Focus on

Market participants typically scan FOMC minutes for two key pieces of information: the debate within the committee about the pace of interest rate adjustments and changes in wording around inflation tolerance. Historically, a more dovish tone (implying that the Fed is willing to suspend or cut interest rates) has generally supported risky assets, while a more hawkish tone (emphasizing keeping interest rates high for longer) has tended to dampen the performance of risky assets.

How interest rate signals affect markets

As institutional participation deepens, especially through the approved Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana and Ripple spot ETFs, traditional financial funds flow directly into digital assets, and cryptocurrencies have become increasingly sensitive to the Federal Reserve's rhetoric. A dovish note could trigger a new round of buying in these instruments; a hawkish interpretation could prolong the current pullback trend. Neither result was known until the text was made public.

This macro sensitivity has a dual impact in Southeast Asia. Regional exchanges and regulators from Manila to Bangkok, whose crypto frameworks are increasingly aligned with signals from the Federal Reserve and other Western central banks, making minutes relevant not only not only for prices, but also for the region's recent regulatory tone.

Analysts 'Opinion: The $100,000 target may return to view

At least one analyst said that if macro conditions change favorably, Bitcoin's $100,000 target price may return to focus. The statement is conditional, depends on the broader interest rate environment and market sentiment, rather than any recent technical triggers, and is not attached to a specific time frame.

The price of US$100,000 has psychological weight in the hearts of both retail and institutional investors. Looking back at previous macro events related to the Federal Reserve, the pattern surrounding the September Fed vote and the rise in government bond yields shows that interest rate expectations can quickly change the short-term trajectory of Bitcoin and move it in either direction.

It should be emphasized that cryptocurrency prices remain highly volatile, and analysts 'conditional outlook is not a price target or a guarantee of a specific direction. A decline before a macro event does not necessarily mean a move in the recommended direction after the event is over. In Southeast Asia, where crypto adoption is expanding rapidly, traders and investors should view such analyst scenarios as one of many inputs rather than directional forecasts.

Whether the Fed minutes bring clear guidance or further uncertainty, regional exchanges and their users will pay close attention. A clear dovish signal could boost sentiment among Indodax, Coins.ph and Upbit KR's Southeast Asian user base, while an unexpected hawkish move could continue the cautious atmosphere defined by Tuesday's trading session.