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BTC Arthur Hayes: The bursting of the AI investment bubble may become a catalyst for Bitcoin's surge
Arthur Hayes, co-founder and former CEO of BitMEX, said that the current surge in artificial intelligence (AI) investment may eventually become a catalyst for significant growth in Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market, especially in the event of a collapse during the current AI boom.
AI investment risks and capital mismatch issues
In an interview with CNBC at the Gamma Prime Investment Conference in Singapore, Hayes called the capital flows currently flooding into the AI data center space "trillions of dollars in capital mismatch." He pointed out that the scale of funds entering the field could lead to an oversupply of huge computing infrastructure.
Hayes believes: "This means we will have cheap and easy to obtain large-scale computing power." He added that if the current investment craze subsides, it will have a significant impact on financial markets. Although large-scale AI infrastructure construction may trigger market volatility in the short term, overcapacity may upset the industry's balance in the long run. He believes this capital mismatch will increase the risk of future credit crises, similar to past financial bubbles.
Potential consequences and impact on crypto assets
Hayes explained that if AI construction ends in a widespread credit event, the government and central bank are likely to intervene. In this case, authorities may inject additional liquidity into the global financial system in an attempt to stabilize markets.
He believes that "Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are likely to be the ultimate beneficiaries of this excess cash." He suggested that monetary policy designed to respond to the crisis could repeat past events that have driven digital assets higher. However, Hayes clarified that the downturn in the AI industry will not necessarily immediately benefit cryptocurrencies. He pointed out that an initial correction in the market could have a negative impact on risky assets, including Bitcoin and stocks. However, subsequent monetary responses-which may include stimulus policies or easing measures-will provide an enabling environment for digital assets to outperform other assets.
Timeline and Alternative Outlooks
Hayes predicts that this dynamic may emerge around 2027 and 2028, when many AI infrastructure providers must demonstrate profitability to verify the huge capital they have invested. He also acknowledged that a surge in AI demand in the coming year may justify these investments. In his view, if the application value of AI grows rapidly, companies can allocate new infrastructure costs by expanding their business.
Hayes cited comments he made in August, when he compared the current investment cycle for AI infrastructure to a prelude to the 2008 financial crisis. He advises market participants to focus on the huge debt financing required for data centers and advanced hardware, rather than simply viewing this moment as another tech bubble.
Although he is skeptical about the growth rate of AI infrastructure, Hayes said he is not currently "short the AI boom." However, he stressed that there is serious over-construction in the industry.
