美国初请失业金人数降至19.7万，劳动力市场进入“低招聘、低裁员”阶段

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美国初请失业金人数降至19.7万，劳动力市场进入“低招聘、低裁员”阶段

2026-10-08 21:44:22

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美国劳动力市场呈现“低招聘、低裁员”特征

截至10月3日当周，初请失业金人数为19.7万人，低于预期的20万人，与前一周持平。申请数据已连续四周徘徊在57年来的低位附近。

这种韧性出现在9月就业数据公布仅数日之后。该数据显示，美国经济当月仅增加2.9万个就业岗位，远低于市场预期，且较8月的表现大幅走弱。

这一组合趋势指向经济学家们日益描述的“低招聘、低裁员”劳动力市场格局。在企业盈利强劲和经济持续增长的支撑下，雇主似乎不愿大规模裁减现有员工。然而，围绕利率、能源价格以及更广泛经济前景的不确定性，正抑制企业扩大招聘规模的意愿。

9月就业报告显示， payroll（薪资总额）增速已从夏季早些时候的强劲步伐中显著回落。对比十分鲜明：每周的新增失业申请仍处于历史低位，但月度岗位创造速度却急剧放缓。

求职者再就业周期延长

初请失业金数据仅揭示了部分事实。衡量首次申请后仍持续领取失业救济金人数的“续请失业金人数”已上升至约171.6万人。与此同时，失业的中位时长攀升至11.5周，创四年多来新高。

This shows that currently employed employees are relatively stable, while it is increasingly difficult for the unemployed to find new job replacements. This pattern contrasts sharply with the strong jobs report in August, when wage growth was surprisingly far exceeding expectations.

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