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LINK Bitcoin spot ETF was redeemed heavily last week, and macro positives supported high fluctuations in the currency price.
According to CoinDesk, although the U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) suffered the largest weekly capital outflow since June last week, about US$680 million, Bitcoin remained firmly above US$84,000 on Monday due to the impact of falling oil prices boosting risk asset sentiment. The most prominent feature of the current market is the huge contrast between the sell-off of institutional funds and the resilience of spot prices, which directly raises a core question: If ETF investors are cutting back on their positions, who is taking on the selling pressure?
Market dynamics revealed by ETF fund flow data
Daily data provided by Farside Investors shows that this week's selling was mainly concentrated in two trading days. On October 7, the U.S. spot bitcoin fund had a net outflow of $484.9 million, of which BlackRock's IBIT contributed an outflow of $207.7 million, Fidelity's FBTC outflow of $105.1 million, and ARK's ARKB outflow of $101.7 million. Subsequently, on October 8, the market experienced another net outflow of US$244.1 million, and the single outflow of FBTC on that day reached US$197.1 million. Although there was a small net inflow of $21.1 million on October 9, the total outflow over the five days was still close to $679 million. CoinDesk cited SoSoValue data as pointing out that this was the most severe weekly level of divestment since June.
This sharp volatility is in sharp contrast to the previous one, when the same funds had absorbed approximately US$241.1 million, highlighting a rapid shift in institutional sentiment. The Ethereum Fund also showed the same trend, with net outflows for nine consecutive trading days, indicating that this de-risk behavior is not limited to the Bitcoin market.
Why can Bitcoin remain strong?
The most obvious driving factor comes from the energy sector. On Monday, West Texas Intermediate crude oil (WTI) prices fell about 1.8% to around $90.30 a barrel. Previously, the Trump administration announced that Russia would supply 300,000 tons of diesel and partially relaxed sanctions on Russia oil imports. Lower oil prices eased inflationary pressures, which in turn boosted the performance of risky assets broadly. In the past 24 hours, nine of the top 10 cryptocurrencies have gained, with Avalanche leading the gains, with a gain of 5.1%, followed by Chainlink, with a gain of 2.4%.
However, this downwind is not without hidden dangers. In the week ending October 9, U.S. Treasury yields hit a 24-year high, and huge outflows on October 7 and 8 accompanied Bitcoin's brief dip to $80,400. Although it rebounded above $82,000, indicating that there were spot buyers entering when the fund sold off, the source of demand cannot be accurately identified based on the flow of funds data alone. In any case, even if prices are slowly moving higher, outflows point to institutions 'cautious positioning. One way to interpret this divergence is that ETF shares only account for a portion of total Bitcoin trading volume, and over-the-counter trading or derivatives activity can absorb the fund's sell-off without dragging down spot prices. But in the absence of clearer order flow data, statements about the explanation of spot demand remain inferences rather than hard facts.
Follow-up Focus
Analysts quoted by CoinDesk pointed out that $82,000 is a key support level that bulls must defend, and the U.S. inflation report released on October 14 is the next major catalyst. If inflation data is higher than expected, it will increase yield pressure and may force Bitcoin to step back at this support level; conversely, if the data is moderate, it will help confirm the sustainability of the macro easing situation. For a market currently priced by two competing forces, this inflation data is far more important than usual.
