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ETHFI Arthur Hayes said that the Bitcoin bull market has begun and attributed this to the expansion of U.S. Treasury bond buybacks. The BitMEX co-founder and chief investment officer of Maelstrom makes this point in a new article. He said Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant was expanding bond buybacks and was injecting dollar liquidity into the financial system. Hayes believes that liquidity usually reaches Bitcoin before other risky assets respond. He published this article titled "Same Same But Different" on August 25, 2026.
Hayes announces a new bull market for Bitcoin
Hayes said that the current market environment is similar to the conditions before Bitcoin rose in the past. He expects this new bull market to be more volatile than previous cycles. Maelstrom is ready for this. Hayes called Maelstrom "maximum risk" status. According to reports, the fund mainly holds Bitcoin, Ethereum, ENA and ETHFI. This position reflects his broader belief that dollar liquidity is shifting in favor of cryptocurrencies.
Hayes envisions a radical scenario in which the Treasury implements de facto yield curve control. This step is possible if the ten-year Treasury yield exceeds 5%. A more likely scenario would be that the repurchase scale steadily expands over time, while using about $1 trillion in funds in the Treasury's general account.
Argument for Treasury bond repurchase to boost liquidity
Besent surprised the market by announcing on August 19, 2026 that it would expand the repurchase of long-term government bonds. The move increased total long-term repurchase by $20 billion in the next quarter. Ten-year Treasury yields fell rapidly, and Bitcoin rose in the following two trading days. However, by the next trading day, yields had rebounded to pre-announcement levels. Hayes said the repurchase was too small compared to the total federal debt of $40 trillion. Ten-year Treasury yields affect mortgage rates, corporate bonds and broader consumer borrowing costs across the economy. Once yields approach 5%, financing costs become expensive and economic growth tends to slow. Besent has taken steps to defend this level, just as his predecessor once did. Hayes wrote that Bitcoin is a "smoke alarm for global liquidity" and responds faster to policy changes than other assets. He said Basent could also tap into the Treasury's general account to fund larger buybacks. The Federal Reserve Management Program provides another channel for continued purchases of short-term Treasuries.
Yellen precedent strengthens Hayes 'bullish view
Hayes was directly contacted by former Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen for her practices at the end of 2023. Before the 2024 election, affordability is the top concern of American voters. Yellen increased the proportion of debt issued in short-term treasury bonds rather than long-term bonds. The shift squeezed money market funds out of the Federal Reserve's reverse repo program and instead bought Treasuries. Hayes 'article noted that the balance of the reverse repo program fell from $2.5 trillion to about $100 billion. The decline occurred when Besent took office on January 20, 2025. Funds that leave the facility can be re-lent to the market by banks. Hayes 'article linked this liquidity injection to the rise in the Nasdaq 100 index and Bitcoin. Both asset classes rose even though the Federal Reserve kept interest rates near historical highs. Economists later used the term "active treasury bond issuance" to describe Yellen's approach. Hayes believes Basent faces the same structural problems today. This parallel relationship is the core reason why he believes the Bitcoin bull market has begun.
