Bitfinex warns: BTC and gold correlation is approaching peak, Delta-Thermo multiple reaches 2.03

The correlation between Bitcoin and gold is unprecedentedly close

According to Bitfinex analysts, the correlation between Bitcoin and gold has reached a high level rarely seen in history, and the two fluctuate almost simultaneously. The exchange pointed out that amid high government debt and expansionary monetary policies that are worrying investors, more and more people are viewing gold and bitcoin as both stores of value and describing bitcoin as a "higher beta version."

Recent data shows that Bitcoin's trend is almost completely synchronized with gold. But Bitfinex analysts warned that this trend could reverse under market pressure. A risk-averse event may test whether Bitcoin continues to follow gold or returns to a stock-like trading pattern.

Bitfinex analysts wrote: "The correlation between Bitcoin and gold is currently close to the upper edge of the historical range, a threshold that is often difficult to maintain in the long term." They also pointed out that after the past few periods of high correlation, sharp divergences often occurred when broader financial markets shifted. Analysts believe the current situation is similar to previous cycles-concerns about excessive fiscal spending and inflationary pressures have also driven interest in precious metals and digital assets.

Delta-Thermo market multiple signal points to early bull market stages

Bitfinex highlighted its proprietary Delta-Thermo market multiples indicator, which last read 2.03. This indicator, used to indicate the Bitcoin market cycle, is still below the 2.5 times level-a level that usually marks the beginning of a constructive bull market. Analysts expect the next key target to be 3.5 times, a figure that has historically been associated with the top of the market.

The exchange said Bitcoin's recent breakthrough from a long-term accumulation stage may be ready to continue expanding rather than peak. Analysts stressed that this period was "the beginning of a bull market, not the peak."

While traditional markets still rely on brokers to facilitate asset purchases, Wall Street is embracing Web3. Through certain platforms, investors can directly hold shares of top U.S. company stocks, gold and silver in their crypto wallets. The tokenization of real-world assets and instant access to the most competitive market prices are rapidly eliminating intermediate links and simplifying investors 'exposure to Bitcoin's current benchmark assets.

Interest rates, bond movements and market risks

The U.S. Treasury Department has signaled that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant will double the size of each long-term treasury bond repurchase operation from the previous US$2 billion to at least US$4 billion, and plans to carry out a series of operations from September 9 to November 4. The news pushed long-term government bond yields to nearly two-decade highs, with the 30-year yield reaching 5.337%, despite weak demand.

The policy caused the U.S. dollar to weaken, while gold and Bitcoin both rose. Bitfinex pointed out that the trend is similar to a pattern observed in 2024, when JPMorgan strategists viewed "debt devaluation" concerns as the main driver of demand to deal with government deficits.

At the Jackson Hole Summit, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Walsh made hawkish remarks, reiterating the Fed's 2% inflation target and hinting at a possible rate hike. The prospect of interest rate hikes could weaken the "currency devaluation" narrative, which Bitfinex analysts believe is currently a key factor supporting the Bitcoin trading environment.

Market sentiment heats up

The cryptocurrency fear and greed index soared to 81, the highest level of "extreme greed" in 616 days, while funding rates also reached a 20-month high. Whale profit-taking among short-term holders achieved a profit of approximately $1.2 billion between August 20 and 22. Analysts pointed out that if a leveraged rally encounters institutional sell-off, it may become fragile once risk sentiment changes.

Bitfinex analysts said whether Bitcoin will continue to synchronize with gold or shift to differentiation with stocks will be announced in the next risk aversion event.