U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission investigates Polymarket trading: involving Biden's pardon

The scope of the CFTC's investigation into Polymarket has been further expanded: involving Biden's pardon, Iran and Google-related transactions

The scope of the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission's (CFTC) investigation into prediction market platform Polymarket has recently expanded significantly. According to new reports, regulators have secretly launched at least three previously undisclosed investigations into transactions related to Biden's pardon, the situation in Iran and Google-related.

Disclosure background of the new investigation

This news originated from a report by WIRED magazine on September 11, 2026. The report, written by Kate Knibbs, pointed out that CFTC voting records obtained through a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) application revealed the existence of the above-mentioned investigation.

Details of three previously undisclosed investigations

According to WIRED, the CFTC's voting records show that at least three previously undisclosed investigations involved transactions on Polymarket related to the following incidents:

• Biden Pardon Related Contract
• Iran Related Contract
• Google's 2025 Search Rankings Related Contract

It should be noted that this brief does not independently verify these records; the status and results of these investigations are currently unclear. In addition, the investigation itself does not amount to a determination of violations.

It must be clarified that this report focuses on transactions conducted on the Polymarket platform, which does not mean that the platform itself has been accused of violating the law. Polymarket is only the venue where relevant transactions are reported to have occurred.

Specific direction of the investigation

According to WIRED, these three investigations are aimed at different types of event contracts on Polymarket:

1. Biden pardon contract investigation: The first investigation was approved by CFTC Chairman Michael Selig in early May, mainly focusing on potential insider trading in Biden pardon contract. The order authorizes testimony questioning, subpoenas, oaths and document retrieval.
2. Iran contract investigation: The second investigation was approved at the end of May and involved the Iran incident contract. The report pointed out that neither order specified the details of the transactions in which the violations were suspected. This is critical, meaning that the scope of the actual review by regulators in both cases remains unclear.
3. Google Search Rankings Contract Survey: The third survey took place in July and involved other individuals who may be involved in Google's 2025 annual search rankings transaction. An email from Executive Director Paul Hayeck described a parallel investigation in the Federal District Court for the Southern District of New York (SDNY) and distinguished the Google-related investigation from the Michele Spagnuolo case.

The above does not indicate that Biden, Iran or Google itself are the targets of the investigation. They are the subject of prediction markets, not the subject of accusations.

Uncertainty about the status of the investigation

First of all, it must be clear that the investigation is not the final decision. The authorizations described in WIRED in May and July only allow investigative steps and do not represent a factual determination that any trader has violated the law.

The report cited some eye-catching early data, but made it clear that the target of the data had not yet been confirmed. For example, WIRED mentioned a trader reported by NPR who made more than $300,000, and an account reported by 60 Minutes that made a profit of $2.4 million on Iran contracts with a 98% win margin. According to WIRED, it is still unclear whether these traders are the actual targets of the investigation.

It is also unclear whether the Justice Department is conducting a parallel criminal investigation into Biden and the Iran contract. Never interpret a separately reported SDNY investigation into Google as evidence in a criminal case.

The CFTC did not respond to questions about the investigation and its status. SDNY and Google declined to comment. Polymarket issued a general statement. Olivia Chalos, its deputy chief legal officer, said in an email response to WIRED: "Although we do not comment on specific investigations, as a commitment to maintaining market integrity, we regularly refer matters to law enforcement and support ongoing investigations."

A former regulator was blunt about the implications of such reports. Joseph Konizeski, former lead litigation attorney for the CFTC's Enforcement Division, told WIRED: "If these investigations were triggered solely by news reports of potential commodity exchange law violations, it would be a significant sign of weakness in the regulatory system." Please note the conditional wording; this is an assumption, not an accusation.

Differences from the 2022 settlement

This is not the first time the CFTC has interacted with Polymarket, but the nature of the new investigation is completely different. On January 3, 2022, the CFTC announced that Blockratize, Inc. (operating under the name Polymarket) reached a settlement alleging that it provided off-site event-based binary options without being designated by DCM or registered by SEF. The order calls for the payment of $1.4 million in civil fines, stopping operations in non-compliant markets, and ending alleged violations. The announcement pointed out that these event contracts are swap contracts within the jurisdiction of the CFTC, and Polymarket's full cooperation has enabled it to obtain exemptions from penalties.

The key difference is that the 2022 case concerns the registration qualifications of the platform; while the newly reported investigation concerns the behavior of suspected traders in violation of regulations. These are two completely different issues and are also the focus of continued attention of forecast market regulation.

Industry Regulatory Trends

Lawmakers are also focusing on the same area. The chairman of the House Oversight Committee has pressured Kalshi and Polymarket over insider trading allegations. The CFTC is also strengthening its enforcement tools, including promoting the automatic award of 30% rewards to whistleblowers in small cases. The agency remains active in fighting fraud and recently accused a fund manager of concealing losses in cryptocurrencies and futures by false investor returns.

So, what is the status of the forecast market boom? Three low-key orders, no named targets, and regulators remained silent. The next step is in the hands of the CFTC, which is keeping a low profile for now.