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BTC 比特币在7.7万美元上方遇阻回落，受强劲就业数据与美联储加息预期影响承压
比特币在尝试突破77,000美元关口失败后，面临 renewed 的抛售压力。这一走势主要受到美国最新公布的劳动力数据好于预期，以及美联储近期加息预期的影响。截至9月12日当周的首次申领失业救济人数降至196,000人，低于经济学家预估的208,000人，创下自7月中旬以来的最低水平。
强劲的劳动力数据重塑政策预期
美国劳工部数据显示，与上周的206,000人相比，首次申领失业救济人数减少了10,000人。此外，四周移动平均值下降至203,250人，反映出劳动力市场持续展现出韧性。这些数据为美联储的最新政策会议提供了参考依据，会上官员们决定将目标利率区间上调25个基点至3.75%-4.00%。委员会所有十二名成员均支持此次加息。
劳动力数据通常是裁员情况的早期信号，最新读数表明就业状况保持稳定。尽管像劳动节这样的假期期间，每周数据可能会表现出一定的波动性，但整体趋势显示就业市场依然稳固。美联储官员评估认为，经济活动保持了增长势头，消费者支出强劲且投资持续进行。同时，通胀率仍高于目标水平，促使央行通过更紧缩的货币政策来强化对价格压力的控制承诺。
Federal Reserve tightening policy and Bitcoin price trend
A stronger labor market means there is less chance that employment fundamentals will show signs of weakness. As a result, inflation and economic growth will continue to be core factors shaping future policy decisions. Rising interest rates often make Treasury yields more attractive, while also increasing the financing costs of leveraged transactions and corporate operations in traditional and digital asset markets.
The Federal Reserve's forecast shows that the average federal funds rate may reach 4.1% by the end of 2026, indicating that there is room for further tightening in the future compared with the current range of 3.75%-4.00%. Still, policymakers point out that these forecasts represent only expectations rather than predetermined commitments, and there is still room for policy adjustment as economic conditions evolve.
Bitcoin rose about 1.5% at one point to hit a high of about US$77,130 when unemployment claims data were released, but gave up some of the gains later in the day. The price then fell back to around $76,501. Market data also shows recent volatility: Bitcoin reached about $79,800 on September 11, fell to $74,944 in the following days, and then rebounded to the median range of $76,000.
Technical Analysis and Analyst Views
Short-term technical indicators continue to signal weak Bitcoin momentum. Prices are still below their 20-day simple moving average, which is around $78,104, and the four-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovers below the neutral level of 50. The Chaikin flow of funds indicator also showed negative values, reflecting limited buying pressure.
比特币在两个备受关注的流动性区间内交易，下方重要支撑位在74,600美元，上方阻力位在77,700美元附近。在最近几个交易时段中，这两个区域均未出现持续的突破。
除了技术面读数外，监管环境也是一个重要因素。美国参议院以49-50票的微弱差距未推进《数字资产市场清晰法案》（H.R. 3633），该票数未达到推进所需的60票。
Michael van de Poppe的最新分析指出，77,500美元是比特币的首要阻力位，若价格突破这一屏障，有望向78,104美元的20日均线靠拢。他还描绘了80,500美元至81,200美元之间的次要阻力区。分析师Ted则表示，82,000美元区域是一个尚未测试的新高点。
技术形态和分析师评论表明，市场参与者正密切关注这些阻力与支撑区域，尤其是在强劲的就业数据和利率转向之后，等待进一步的市场动向。虽然传统市场的信号往往需要借助中介才能解读，但随着华尔街主要兴趣向Web3领域转移，一种明显的转变正在发生。投资者越来越多地使用平台直接在加密钱包中持有美国领先公司、黄金和白银的代币化股份。这一过程利用现实世界资产（RWA）的代币化技术，能够在几秒钟内实现最佳市场价格发现，并完全绕过传统经纪商。
目前，在强劲的就业数据和美联储持续紧缩政策的背景下，比特币价格在首个阻力位下方交易。
