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Following美联储九月会议鹰派信号重塑华尔街利率预期
美国联邦储备委员会（美联储）在九月会议上释放的鹰派信号，已开始促使华尔街调整对利率路径的预期。尽管多数大型银行预计继九月份加息25个基点后，美联储还将至少再加息一次，但部分机构已下调了此前预测的降息次数。
据最新估算，包括高盛、摩根士丹利、国民威斯敏斯特银行（NatWest）、拉博银行（Rabobank）、瑞典商业银行（Swedbank）和德国商业银行（Commerzbank）在内的多家机构，在美联储九月会议后将其预测向更鹰派的方向进行了修正。国民威斯敏斯特银行和瑞典商业银行预计十月份将再次加息25个基点，而渣打银行和德国商业银行则在十二月份的预测中纳入了25个基点的加息幅度。
高盛也开始预期十月份将额外加息25个基点，同时将其对后续降息的预期推迟至2027年9月、12月以及2028年3月。另一方面，摩根士丹利预测到2027年第一季度前，美联储将累计额外加息两次，每次25个基点。
然而，华尔街对此并未达成共识。分析师预测的中位数显示，美联储将从当前水平再加息25个基点。但对于加息的具体时机，观点存在分歧，预测范围介于十月至十二月之间。
Institutions such as ANZ, Bank of America, Royal Bank of Canada, TD of Toronto, BNP Paribas, Deutsche Bank, Morgan Stanley and Societe Generale expect further tightening measures totaling 50 basis points in the future. Several banks, including JPMorgan Chase, Barclays Bank, UBS, Goldman Sachs and Standard Chartered Bank, predict an additional 25 basis points in the future.
On the other hand, ING, Sweden's Eastern Bank (SEB) and Citi of the United States maintain their original view that the September interest rate hike is the last move in the current tightening cycle. These institutions do not expect the Fed to raise interest rates again in the short term.
Overall, market expectations for a "single rate hike" have weakened after the Federal Reserve's September meeting, and investors 'attention has shifted to whether the next rate hike will be in October or December.
This article does not constitute investment advice.
