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BTC Bloomberg Analysts: Bitcoin has "failed" as a portfolio asset, and continued bearish expectations remain unchanged
A Bloomberg analyst said expectations for a decline in Bitcoin are still ongoing and believes that Bitcoin's role in portfolio management has expired. Mike McGlone, senior commodity strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence, posted an article on his X account that it is necessary to re-examine the actual performance of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrency assets in portfolio management over the past decade or so.
McGron emphasized that in terms of risk-adjusted returns, digital assets have underperformed the Nasdaq-100 over the past decade, making Bitcoin a "failed" asset class at the portfolio and risk management level.
High risk and limited additional returns
According to McGron's assessment, the MarketVector Digital Asset 100 Index (MVDA), which includes Bitcoin and accounts for approximately two-thirds of its weight, has been lagging behind the Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX) since 2017.
One of the key points McGron points out is volatility. The analyst pointed out that since 2017, the volatility of the MarketVector Digital Asset 100 Index (MVDA) has been approximately three times that of the Nasdaq 100 Index (NDX). However, this higher volatility and risk did not translate into significant excess returns relative to the Nasdaq 100 over the long term. McGron interprets this chart as indicating that cryptocurrency assets are performing poorly in risk management and portfolio building.
麦格隆分析的另一个要素是数字资产与股票之间的相关性。据该分析师称，由于数字资产与股票呈负相关，高波动性本可能有助于投资组合的多元化。然而，数字资产与股票之间存在的正相关关系并未为风险管理带来实际益处。麦格隆认为，这限制了比特币作为独立于传统资产的减险工具的功能。
在MarketVector数字资产100指数（MVDA）中，比特币的权重约为67%。自2017年CBOE和CME推出比特币期货、加密货币正式进入监管框架以来，该指数一直落后于纳斯达克100指数。麦格隆表示，在此期间之后，MVDA相对于纳斯达克100指数的优异表现也宣告结束。
麦格隆补充道，包括现货比特币ETF获批以及特朗普政府亲加密货币政策等重大看涨催化剂，大多已被市场充分定价。因此，未来加密货币资产很难像传统资产那样提供独特的强劲回报。
*本文不构成投资建议。
