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BTC Bitcoin (BTC) hovered around US$77,000 today, recouping some of the decline it fell below US$76,500 earlier this week due to market panic triggered by a new round of conflict between the United States and Iran.
Analysts are divided on whether this correction is a wash ahead of a new round of gains or an initial signal of a deeper pullback.
Traders keep a close eye on the US$83,000 gap
Analyst NoName is focusing on the CME futures gap above the current price and sees US$83,000 as a key watershed in determining subsequent trends. He pointed out that Bitcoin needs "the daily closing price to stay firmly above that level, supported by real spot volume, to distinguish a real reversal from a short-term relief rebound." If that close is not achieved, he views the current rebound as a retest of old supply areas rather than confirmation of a new uptrend. His bearish expectations are clear: if $83,000 is blocked and $74,000 falls, he believes that Bitcoin will likely fall to the range of $50,000 to $55,000 before a real bottom can be found.
However, not everyone agrees with this graphical interpretation. Analyst Doctor Profit directly rejected the idea of setting a new low, saying "I think the bear market is over." Another market observer, Sykodelic, focused on the monthly line rather than the shorter cycle, pointing to the reversal structure, bullish signals from the DSS Bressert indicator and a flattening MACD. He believes the current pattern is "not bearish and has never been bearish" and emphasized that the monthly closing price has held the key level he had previously marked as a confirmation of a reversal or lapse of $76,400.
Behind the controversy is a turbulent week. Previously, Bitcoin was blocked many times at the US$79,000 mark, and then the latest round of downtesting pushed it below US$76,500, setting a new low since August 23. The escalation of the US-Iran conflict was the main trigger. Currently, Bitcoin is trading above $77,000 and has fluctuated between $76,300 and $77,800 in the past 24 hours. This week's decline was nearly 2%, but it still rose about 22% this month.
The rare positive line in August complicates the situation.
This correction comes after a month that broke the rules: Bitcoin closed up nearly 25% in August, the first time in a bear market cycle such as 2014, 2018 or 2022 that it has recorded a positive line in August-a point in the previous cycle, Bitcoin typically fell between 9% and 18%. It was also the best August since 2017, when the month closed up more than 65%. In addition, the third quarter has risen nearly 33% so far, and there is one month left in the quarter.
However, this did not change Bitcoin's position relative to the cyclical high. The decline during the year is still close to 30%, which is more than 38% lower than the historical peak of more than US$126,000 in October 2025, and the current market share exceeds 57%.
