Bitcoin faces a decline risk of US$74,000 against the U.S. dollar, with employment and bond yields b

Key Insights

Bitcoin (USD) prices remain below US$80,000 as macro pressures continue. Glassnode pointed out that the main upper supply range lies between $83,000 and $86,000. Friday's U.S. jobs data could reset the Fed's expectations.

On September 3, Bitcoin (USD) prices hovered around $77,200 after its late August rally failed to establish support above $80,000. BTC was trading around $77,200 in major market quotes, still within the range formed after the short squeeze in August. High Treasury yields, an increased supply of profit-taking orders and weakening ETF trading volume continue to limit price recovery. Traders are also preparing for the August U.S. employment report due on September 4. The release of the data could change interest rate expectations ahead of the Federal Reserve's September 15 - 16 meeting.

Bitcoin prices are below US$80,000

CoinMarketCap data shows that Bitcoin prices are close to US$77,200, with 24-hour trading volume of approximately US$27.7 billion. The asset remains below the $80,000 level, which has limited several recent attempts to rebound. Based on circulating supply, its market value is close to US$1.55 trillion.

Source: Glassnode

Glassnode researcher Frederik Theissen said that a short squeeze in mid-August pushed Bitcoin into the $80,000 area. The rally then stalled below the $83,000 to $86,000 supply area where long-term holders were concentrated. Bitcoin later fell back as traders reduced exposure after the squeeze.

Theissen also pointed out that spot bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) absorbed approximately $290 million per day during their peak periods. During this period, the turnover rate in the secondary market remained at around US$3 billion per day. Glassnode said this activity was weaker than in previous expansion phases.

Bitcoin faces heavy upward supply pressure

Glassnode data shows that 68% of Bitcoin supply is profitable around the price in late August. By comparison, when Bitcoin was traded at similar levels in May, the ratio was 65%. A higher supply of profits increases the pool of potential selling coins.

The company points out that after summer accumulation, the cost base for short-term holders of Bitcoin is close to $71,000. It identified $62,000 to $65,000 as the main accumulation floor below spot. Above, supply between $83,000 and $86,000 for long-term holders remains the main resistance band.

Option positioning also strengthens this range. Glassnode said the value of open interest on contracts in the Deribit and BlackRock iShares Bitcoin Trust Fund that expired on September 25 was approximately $14 billion. A large number of positions are above $80,000, which provides another reference point for volatility.

U.S. labor force data puts pressure on Bitcoin prices

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that 5.1 million people were hired and 5.1 million people left in July. More detailed data shows that the number of recruiters is close to 5.05 million, and the number of resignations is close to 5.07 million. This gap suggests that net job creation was weak ahead of the August employment report.

Source: X

Detailed Job Vacancy and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data further highlights this weakness. The number of recruiters fell by 278,000 from June, while the number of departures fell by 265,000. This makes the number of people leaving more than the number of people hired by 18,000. The imbalance widened from about 5,000 people in June.

The Labor Bureau also reported that non-farm payrolls fell by 23,000 in July. Employment growth in May and June was revised downward, with a total reduction of 103,000 jobs. The August employment report is scheduled to be released at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time.

U.S. Treasury data adds another constraint on risky assets. On September 2, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note was 4.79%. Higher sovereign yields increase the relative attractiveness of fixed-income assets while increasing borrowing costs in various markets.

Glassnode also tracked a rapid reversal in sovereign yields following the Treasury's repurchase announcement on August 19. The 10-year yield briefly approached 4.6%, then rebounded to around 4.8% within eight trading days. This reversal tightened financial conditions, causing Bitcoin to fail to rally above $80,000.

Bitcoin tracks gold more closely today

Zach Pandl, head of research at Grayscale, said the 90-day correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq 100 Index has dropped to about 33%. According to data from the Grayscale Institute, the indicator has previously been above 60%. The correlation between Bitcoin and gold has risen from near zero at the beginning of the year to more than 50%.

Bitcoin rolling 90-day correlation. Source: X

This shift separates Bitcoin from the technology stock trading that dominated most of the past. Grayscale attributed the move to investors 'renewed focus on scarce assets amid persistent deficits and rising debt costs. This change in correlation is backward looking and does not guarantee future price movements.

Federal Reserve policy remains another recent catalyst. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has scheduled its next meeting for September 15 - 16. CME FedWatch tracks interest rate probabilities through 30-day federal funds futures, making labor data the core of policy expectations.

The next test will come on September 4 when the U.S. August jobs report arrives. Weak jobs data could reshape interest rate expectations ahead of the Fed meeting. Bitcoin faces resistance of $83,000 to $86,000, while $62,000 to $65,000 remains the main downside support area.

This document is for reference only and does not constitute financial advice. The cryptocurrency market may experience drastic price fluctuations.