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BTC How Wall Street drives Bitcoin prices higher
According to an optimistic prediction model proposed by research firm River, the price of Bitcoin may reach US$250,000 to US$840,000 in a three-to-five-year time frame. This forecast is based on 20% to 40% of the global portfolio allocating 2% to 4% of Bitcoin. This level of popularity means that $1.3 trillion to $5.3 trillion in new funds will flow into the Bitcoin market.
Data shows that the proportion of financial advisers holding Bitcoin has increased from 22% in 2024 to 32% in 2025. Among the top U.S. investment advisers, 29 already hold Bitcoin, although its allocation ratio is still small.
According to a new adoption model released by research firm River, the price of Bitcoin could rise significantly in the next three to five years. The model analyzes how much money is likely to flow in as more portfolios add to Bitcoin. River shared the findings on the X platform and elaborated on the computational logic behind them. Analysts pointed out that compared with the total global wealth, the current willingness to hold Bitcoin is still very low.
Potential impact of capital inflows on bitcoin prices
Currently, only about 4% of the world's population owns any form of bitcoin. Institutional investors have lower holdings, with investment advisers allocating only 0.008% of their assets to Bitcoin on average. The gap between current holdings and potential future holdings forms the basis of River's forecast. The company believes that there is still room for growth in the popularity of Bitcoin.
River's model assumes that the final global portfolio will have 20% to 40% of bitcoins allocated at a ratio of 2% to 4%. This range is consistent with the advice many banks and asset managers have provided to clients. Some companies recommend allocation ratios between 1% and 7%. If the adoption rate falls within the range of River's hypothesis, Bitcoin will transform from a niche asset to a common component in many portfolios.
The total global financial assets are approximately US$333 trillion. Under River's assumptions, this would result in $1.3 trillion to $5.3 trillion in new funds flowing into Bitcoin. The fixed supply of Bitcoin is crucial in this process. Unlike stocks or commodities, Bitcoin cannot meet growing demand through additional issuance, so there is no other place for new money entering the market.
Consultant data support the view that adoption trends are moving in this direction. The percentage of financial advisers holding cryptocurrencies rose from 22% in 2024 to 32% in 2025. Another 56% of advisers said they plan to increase their cryptocurrency exposure or are considering doing so. In addition, 29 of the top 30 registered investment advisers in the United States hold bitcoin in some form. However, their median allocation ratio is only 0.10% of assets. Although adoption rates are spreading, the amount of money involved per consultant is still small.
What does capital inflows mean for Bitcoin prices
River's model uses multipliers to estimate the impact of new capital inflows in Bitcoin on prices. It assumes that every $1 in net inflow will increase the total market value of Bitcoin by approximately $3. This figure is based on past Bitcoin cycles. Over the past period, for every dollar inflow, the market value has increased by $4.50,$3.30 and $3.10 respectively.
Using a more conservative three-fold multiplier calculation, new capital of US$1.3 trillion to US$5.3 trillion would bring the total market value of Bitcoin to US$5.5 trillion to US$17.5 trillion. According to the model, this equates to a price of approximately $250,000 to $840,000 per bitcoin.
River points out that this forecast depends on whether the adoption trend continues at the stated rate. Slow adoption or smaller configuration ratios can reduce predictions. As of now, the latest data shows that 29 of the top 30 investment advisers in the United States hold Bitcoin, with a median asset allocation ratio of 0.10%.
