XRP prices may have one last drop before the big market starts!

XRP is again under selling pressure, as the broader crypto market gives up some of the gains from its recent rebound

XRP is again under selling pressure as the broader cryptocurrency market gives up some of the gains from its recent rebound. XRP prices fell about 3.5% today, trading around $1.40, while Bitcoin and Ethereum are also undergoing pullbacks.

The weakness followed a strong overall market recovery earlier this week. Bitcoin briefly broke through the $82,000 mark and fell back, and XRP also actively participated in this rally. At present, it seems that there is no obvious negative news against XRP behind the latest round of declines. In fact, some recent news surrounding Ripple and XRP is constructive. This makes the broader market correction a more convincing explanation of today's price movements.

However, one analyst we regularly report on CaptainAltcoin believes that the technical structure of XRP now leaves room for a deeper correction before the next major market change. CasiTrades turned her attention to the $1.10 level, where she believes the performance of that level will determine whether XRP begins a larger bullish reversal or whether there is still a low to be explored.

CasiTrades points out that US$1.10 is the next XRP price level to watch.

CasiTrades's latest analysis starts with XRP consolidating below important macro Fibonacci resistance levels for about two weeks. Her chart shows that the main 0.618 resistance level is at 1. 64 Near the US dollar, XRP failed to break through this area after rising in August.

More importantly, XRP has currently lost the 0.5 retracement level in the structures she monitors, which is around $1.34. This is crucial because CasiTrades has always used this level as a failure point for the clearer fourth wave of the Elliot Wave. Under that scenario, the XRP could have completed the adjustment before advancing and moved relatively quickly towards $1.77. But this line now seems unconvincing.

As CasiTrades explains: "The easy, clear upward path doesn't seem so clear anymore." Instead, she now believes a deeper retracement towards $1.10 is more likely.

Why US$1.10 may determine the next move

When looking at the chart, the importance of US$1.10 becomes clearer. CasiTrades identified this area as a potential second sub-wave area, and it also overlaps with XRP's broader macro 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level. The chart closely ranks several key price points in the region, including approximately $1.09 and $1.06. This creates a broader support area rather than a single precise price that XRP must reverse.

Falling to US$1.10 from the current US$1.40 region would represent another decline of about 21%. However, CasiTrades does not necessarily view this pullback as a bearish signal. On the contrary, if XRP falls to the $1.10 region and buyers actively defend that position, the reaction may provide evidence that a new macro uptrend is developing.

The logic is that the new bullish structure does not require XRP to move vertically upwards. As long as important structural support is maintained, a deeper second-wave correction can occur while maintaining the integrity of the overall recovery. That's why the reaction at $1.10 may be more important than simply whether or not that level is touched.

CasiTrades's chart retains the possibility of US$0.90

If US$1.10 falls, the bullish reading will become difficult to defend. CasiTrades warned that losing this support would leave the door open for XRP prices to fall further to about $0.90. Her chart shows a substantial area of low support stretching from $0.86 to $0.94. Several Fibonacci levels also converge near the region, including approximately $0.94,$0.938 and $0.862.

Interestingly enough, CasiTrades is not just proposing $0.94 as a technical possibility. She said her bill on Coinbase is still tied at $0.94. For traders worried about waiting for a perfect bottom and missing a reversal, she sees $1.10 as another potential area to watch out for. One approach she discussed would be to spread entry points between the two areas rather than betting all on one outcome.

This is not a prediction that XRP will definitely reach US$0.94. Her chart actually creates two main decision-making areas: the first is around $1.10, and if the first fails, it focuses on the $0.90 -0.94 area.

There is still significant resistance above the XRP

The upward part of the chart is equally important. XRP first needs to recover the Fibonacci levels lost during the adjustment process. The chart shows the 0.382 retracement level at around $1.43, followed by a more significant area of resistance starting around $1.53. Above this is located at 1. 64 Macro 0.618 level near the U.S. dollar.

This 1.53-1. 64 The area for the U.S. dollar is the green resistance area highlighted on the CasiTrades chart. Breaking through it would substantially improve the bullish structure and reopen the possibility of XRP entering a higher Elliot Wave target. For now, though, the chart shows XRP trapped between resistance above and potentially deeper support below. The RSI also does not provide extreme signals. The indicator hovers in the middle of its range, meaning that XRP is not significantly oversold on the four-hour chart. This leaves room for additional downside without an immediate technical rebound.

XRP ledger payments surged by more than 500%

Interestingly, the weakness in XRP prices has been accompanied by a significant increase in XRP ledger activity. Recent network snapshots show that payments jumped approximately 521.1% to approximately 488.4 million XRP. At the same time, the number of payment transactions was reported to have dropped by approximately 10.5%. Taken together, these data suggest that more XRP flows in fewer individual payment transactions, which means that the average transaction size has increased significantly.

This is worthy of attention, but requires important qualifications. Large-value transactions do not automatically prove their adoption by institutions. The increase in average transfer size may come from other sources such as exchanges, custodians, giant whales, internal wallet transfers or institutional participants. Without identifying the addresses involved, data alone cannot tell us who generated these activities. But it does show that over the measured time period, even though the number of original transactions fell, more value flowed through XRPL payments.

Recent XRP news is not particularly bearish

This makes it more difficult to attribute today's XRP decline to a single negative fundamentals catalyst. Compared with previous years, the regulatory outlook has improved significantly. The SEC issued a broader interpretation of crypto assets in March, establishing a classification that includes "digital goods," and the long-standing Ripple enforcement case has been resolved in 2025. However, precise regulatory treatment of individual assets still requires caution, and widespread claims that the new SEC order specifically declares XRP as a digital commodity should be verified based on actual orders rather than inferred from classifications.

Ripple also just announced a major partnership with the University of Florida track and field program. The multi-year agreement will place the XRP brand logo on Florida courses, as well as a wider range of digital attributes and event logos. Ripple will also provide financial and technical educational support to student activists and the wider university community. The Associated Press reported that the agreement is expected to bring in approximately $5 million in annual revenue to Florida track and field events.

Are these developments enough to prevent today's decline? No. But this is not particularly surprising. As Bitcoin and the broader market adjust, even with positive project-specific news, crypto prices may fall. XRP remains highly exposed to overall crypto liquidity, sentiment and risk appetite.

XRP prices may need a deeper reset first

CasiTrades's analysis changes the current XRP price outlook in an important way. Previously, a clearer bullish scenario provided a relatively direct route to about $1.77. Losing the level of technology she used to verify the structure meant she no longer relied on that path. Now the focus is down first.

The US$1.10 region is the main observation level. If the decline there is followed by strong buying, it could provide confirmation of the high time frame CasiTrades is looking for and provide a good opportunity to try again at $1.43,$1.53,$1.53,$1. 64 US dollars and ultimately higher levels lay the foundation. Losing $1.10 will make the situation quite difficult and bring the $0.90 -0.94 area into focus.

Our view is that the latest 3.5% decline does not currently look like an XRP-specific fundamental collapse. Bitcoin and Ethereum are also pulling back, while XRP has recently received several favorable ecosystem and development regulatory developments. The technical picture is not very comfortable. XRP has failed to clear the main resistance, and CasiTrades 'clearer bullish structure has been denied under the rules she uses. This leaves the market with another downside space. But falling to $1.10 doesn't necessarily mean the larger recovery is over.