Bitcoin gold correlation hits a six-year high, Nasdaq correlation weakens

Bitcoin gold correlation soars, while Bitcoin's correlation with Nasdaq weakens

This week, Bitcoin gold correlation data has become one of the most watched charts in the market. New research shows that Bitcoin (BTC) trading characteristics are more like a currency hedging tool than a risky asset linked to technology stocks. At the same time, Bitcoin's relationship with the Nasdaq 100 Index has weakened to its lowest level in 12 months.

What exactly does the new data show?

According to a research note from Bitwise Asset, the 90-day rolling correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and gold has climbed to around +0.50. This value has occurred for the first time since the 2020 epidemic and more than doubled the level at the beginning of the year.

This indicator reached similar highs in both periods of deep government intervention in the macro environment, indicating that this pattern is no coincidence. During the same time period, the technology index correlation coefficient fell to about +0.30, setting a full-year low, indicating that the link between cryptocurrencies and traditional technology stocks is indeed loosening.

Why the U.S. Treasury's announcement is crucial here

The surge in Bitcoin gold correlation accelerated after the U.S. Treasury confirmed on August 19 that it would increase the maximum size of long-term bond repurchase operations from US$2 billion per time to at least US$4 billion. The policy will take effect on September 9.

Bitwise's research views the move as a sign of growing financial repression. According to WuBlockchain's report on platform X, in the days after the news was announced, Bitcoin posted its largest weekly gain since March 2024, and gold also rose, despite the overall decline in stocks.

Key factors driving this shift include:

• The correlation coefficient with gold is close to +0.50, the highest level since 2020.
• The correlation coefficient of the science and technology index dropped to about +0.30, hitting a one-year low.
• The Ministry of Finance's repurchase scale doubled. From US$2 billion to at least US$4 billion each time, the week after the
• announcement was the strongest since March 2024.
• Gold prices rose by about 5% during the same period. While the broad market stocks fell

Data snapshot

The 90-day correlation coefficient between the current level background of the indicator and gold is about +0.50Since the epidemic in 2020, the highest 90-day correlation coefficient with the Nasdaq 100 is about +0.30The minimum annual Treasury long-term bond repurchase scale of US$4 billion has doubled from US$2 billion each time. The correlation range considered "low or no" effective September 9 is between-0.5 and +0.5. According to Bitwise's own chart annotation Source: Kobeissi Letter released on the X platform

Why investors see this as a meaningful shift

Bitwise believes that when broader macro conditions become severe enough, investors no longer need to choose between gold and cryptocurrency to cope with currency devaluation, but instead increase their holdings of both at the same time. Research also pointed out that Bitcoin remains negatively correlated with the U.S. dollar index, further confirming the view that currency weakness can often jointly push up hard assets.

A combination of positive correlation with benchmark assets on the one hand and negative correlation with the stock market on the other suggests that the asset is increasingly being priced as a currency rather than a leveraged subject of technology speculation.

What does this mean for the future?

If this trend of bitcoin gold correlation continues, Bitwise suggests that the asset may eventually be repriced in a larger pool of approximately $30 trillion, rather than the smaller venture capital and crypto-native capital that its historical valuation relies on. This would represent a major shift in its benchmark pricing approach, although the study carefully notes that current behavior does not guarantee that such changes will be permanent.

Conclusion

This wave of bitcoin gold correlation data captures the real and measurable shift in the market's pricing of bitcoin relative to gold and traditional stocks after the U.S. Treasury confirmed the policy change. With the correlation with gold at a six-year high and the link with technology stocks at a one-year low, the next few months will show whether the pattern strengthens further or fades as macro conditions evolve.