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BTC Bitcoin is approaching the US$79,000 mark, and the gold cross signal is intertwined with macro policy risks.
After the formation of the "golden cross" technical form, the trading price of Bitcoin (BTC) hovered around US$79,000. At the same time, inflows from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and policy uncertainty from the Federal Reserve have jointly formed the focus of the market debate on whether Bitcoin can hit the $100,000 mark.
Key Points
- Gold Cross Reappears: Bitcoin's 50-day moving average has crossed the 200-day moving average for the first time since November 2025, reactivating this much-watched bullish trend signal.
- Strong funding: Nearly US$3.8 billion in ETF inflows further strengthen bullish logic, but the main resistance level is concentrated in the US$79,000 to US$82,800 range before a larger breakthrough.
- Policy risks remain: If the Fed sends hawkish signals, it may weaken current upward momentum and push Bitcoin prices back to support levels around $75,674.
Technical Analysis: Gold Crosses and Resistance Levels
With Bitcoin trading at approximately US$79,278, its 50-day moving average crosses the 200-day moving average, forming a classic "gold cross" pattern. Historical data shows that after this pattern appeared three times previously, Bitcoin achieved increases of 50%, 45% and 60% respectively. However, investors should note that this technical model does not guarantee that the same rising market will inevitably repeat in the future.
Judging from the technical chart, Bitcoin still faces certain resistance constraints. Initial resistance is between $79,730 and $79,920, followed by a heavier resistance area of $80,000 to $82,793. The lower support is in the range of US$76,000 to US$77,600, and the stronger support below is in the range of US$71,781 to US$75,674.
ETF demand has added another positive factor to the bullish situation. The recent new capital inflow of nearly US$3.8 billion confirms the previous moving average signal. If Bitcoin can close firmly above $82,300 at the daily level, it will open the channel for subsequent movement into the $85,000-$86,000 range; if the upward momentum continues, the target will further point to the $95,000-$100,000 range.
Macro Perspective: Federal Reserve Chairman's remarks draw attention
Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh's recent Jackson Hole Annual Conference speech has become a major risk variable in the current macro environment. He highlighted concerns about inflation in his speech, which led markets to weigh the possibility of a possible 25-basis point rate hike by the Federal Reserve. If expectations of interest rate hikes heat up, the attractiveness of holding income-based assets will increase, putting pressure on demand for risky assets such as Bitcoin.
In this context, Bitcoin's technical trend roughly presents three paths:
- Bullish scenario: Need to effectively break through the key resistance level of $82,300.
- Baseline scenario: Prices fluctuate within the range of US$76,000 to US$82,000.
- Bear scenario: If tight monetary policy weakens the rising moment brought by the "gold cross", prices may fall back to around US$75,674.
Historical performance review
Although the "Golden Cross" signal has a strong historical record in recent times, it is not perfect. Data shows that the past three gold crossovers have predicted significant rallies (increases of 50%, 45% and 60% respectively). In addition, earlier similar patterns were also linked to the all-time high of $126,200 set in May 2025. When investors refer to this technical indicator, they still need to make comprehensive judgments based on the macro environment and market sentiment.
