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FollowingU.S. consumers have spent more than $100 billion more because of the war.
According to a cost tracking data released by Brown University's Watson School of International and Public Affairs, since the outbreak of the war at the end of February, U.S. consumers 'spending on gasoline and diesel has increased by an estimated $100.9 billion. The estimate compares actual fuel prices with what the researchers calculate consumers would have paid without the war, which equates to approximately $770 more per household.
Gasoline prices have climbed above $4.15 a gallon, while diesel prices have hit a record of $5.90, up from $3.76 before the conflict. Since trucks, trains and agricultural machinery all use diesel, rising diesel costs can quickly spread across the economy.
Tom Kloza, chief energy adviser for Gulf Oil, told CNN: "We are heading for the most expensive fall gasoline season in history, but even more so for diesel." He added that this would "exacerbate all aspects of inflation."
Goldman Sachs warned that oil prices could soar to $120 a barrel if attacks on Middle Eastern shipping do not stop. Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research at the bank, expressed the above views in an interview with Bloomberg Television on Monday. Brent crude oil is expected to exceed the $100 per barrel mark for the first time since July.
Probability of raising interest rates before the Federal Reserve's September 16 decision rises
August inflation data released on Friday is expected to show that the consumer price index rose 3.4% year-on-year, still well above the Federal Reserve's 2% target. Despite President Trump's pressure on policymakers to maintain or lower interest rates, markets tend to raise interest rates in September.
Forecast market Kalshi prices the probability of a 25 basis point rate hike for the September 16 meeting at 57%, while the probability of the Fed remaining unchanged at 44% and the probability of a significant rate hike at 1%. CNBC reported on Wednesday that Federal Reserve funds futures tracked by CME Group's FedWatch tool showed a 60% probability of a rate hike.
Mark Higgins, senior vice president ofIndex Fund, told CNBC: "History has proven that the most reliable way to restore price stability is to maintain monetary policy tight enough until inflation is completely contained."
Higher interest rates increase returns on safe assets and tighten financial conditions, which often leads to reduced demand for other riskier investments such as Bitcoin.
Oil trading has poured into decentralized derivatives exchange Hyperliquid
The oil shock has also created an unexpected venue for traders seeking to bet on energy prices: the decentralized derivatives exchange Hyperliquid.
Hyperliquid focuses on perpetual contracts ("perps")-contracts that allow traders to bet on the price of an asset without owning it. Unlike traditional futures, these contracts have no expiration date. Its infrastructure allows third parties to deploy markets for real-world assets such as stocks, commodities and oil.
When the war began, oil trading on the platform quickly heated up. David Schamis, CEO of Hyperliquid Strategies, said on the company's Aug. 27 earnings conference call: "When the February war in Iran began on Friday night in New York time, I believe the only place to trade oil in the following 48 hours was Hyperliquid."
[TAG 28] He said that at the time, the platform only offered oil trading for a few weeks, but during the closure of traditional markets, it became the only venue where "any real trading volume could last for 48 hours."Since then, the market size has become considerable. The BRENTOIL-USDC perpetual contract deployed on Hyperliquid by trade.xyz recorded approximately $187.8 million in 24-hour trading volume and $243.1 million in open interest value at the time of writing. Brent traded close to $99.77 on the platform, rising 3.3% in 24 hours and just one step away from $100 a barrel.
