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BTC Bitcoin prices face US$78,000 support, and Glassnode points to broader resistance between US$83,000 and US$86,000.
In the latest analysis, Glassnode points out that the book loss of spot ETFs has narrowed from approximately US$18 billion to US$3.9 billion. The currently proposed head-and-shoulder pattern has not yet been confirmed, and if the daily closing price falls below US$78,000, the bearish view will be strengthened.
Bitcoin prices are facing near-term support tests around $78,000 as analysts point to shrinking volatility and obstacles to selling pressure above. A clearing cluster near $80,000 constitutes a potential upside target, while a suspected bearish pattern is still awaiting confirmation. At the same time, Glassnode identified a broader area of resistance related to the cost of investors holding positions. Its research places institutional break-even above the current trading range, thereby distinguishing short-term recovery goals from larger structural breakthroughs.
Bitcoin prices face resistance above ETF costs
Source: Glassnode
Glassnode sets the main cost benchmark resistance band between $83,000 and $86,000. Its model estimates that the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF as a whole will achieve breakeven near this upper edge. Unrealized losses on the exchange-traded fund (ETF) series have narrowed to about $39 billion, after reaching about $18 billion in February. These figures describe book losses on underlying assets rather than outflows.
If Bitcoin prices break through this region, it will strengthen the broader logic of recovery. Still, Glassnode also reported that selling pressure was lighter than in August, providing a negative argument for a bearish interpretation.
Neckline and Clearing Cluster Definition Downward Test
On charts for shorter time periods, MikybullCrypto identified Bollinger Band squeezing, indicating that volatility is compressing but no next direction is established. CryptoTony tends to test at untouched lows before an upward continuation may occur.
Analyst Gerla identified a possible head-and-shoulder configuration, with the right shoulder likely forming in the recent rally. His bitcoin price scenario depends on whether he breaks below the neckline near $78,000 to $79,000. If this critical position is lost,$70,000 could arrive soon. Currently, only the development of the right shoulder is observed.
If the day's closing price decisively falls below US$78,000, this interpretation will be strengthened and support levels between US$76,000 and US$77,000 will be exposed. The larger $70,000 target is conditional, with daily Supertrend support near $72,786 providing an intermediate level. CoinGlass's three-day heat map shows dense areas above concentrated at US$79,700 to US$80,200, followed by clusters towards US$82,000. Below the price, concentrated areas appear around $78,000 and $77,500 to $77,800.
If the Bitcoin price rises above US$80,150, it will weaken the current bearish structure and put US$81,500 to US$82,283 in focus. On the contrary, if support is lost, long liquidation may be accelerated.
In addition, CryptoQuant contributor GugaOnChain warned of the potential risk of long squeeze, citing the exhaustion of momentum in its indicator framework. This assessment did not confirm that forced selling had begun.
