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BTC Bitcoin is consolidating around US$77,300, with selling pressure above hindering breakthroughs
This weekend, Bitcoin prices hovered around US$77,300. However, there is a large amount of selling chips between the current price and $80,000, making the next upward breakthrough increasingly difficult.
According to CryptoQuant data quoted by FXStreet, long-term holders sold approximately 539,000 BTC units in the range of US$77,100 to US$80,200 during 2026, forming a huge upper supply area. Above that range, Bitcoin's 365-day moving average of close to $81,700 has become the next major technical test.
Currently, Bitcoin has been almost flat in the past 24 hours, but has fallen by about 2.9% in the past seven days. Futures open interest positions remain at a high of approximately $51.9 billion, while approximately $183 million in bitcoin positions were liquidated during the latest 24-hour cycle.
US$81,700 may determine Bitcoin's next trend
Although Bitcoin rebounded from around US$63,000 in August, it was blocked several times around US$80,000. CryptoQuant pointed out that the $81,700 position is particularly critical because historical data shows that Bitcoin generally exhibits stronger bull behavior after regaining its 365-day moving average.
The second valuation resistance level is around $83,600, which means that bulls may need to clear both barriers to establish a greater recovery. This provides a clearer outlook for the trend than recent speculative forecasts of $90,000.
If we can break through the US$81,700 to US$83,600 range, the road to the middle of US$85,000 will be reopened. If Bitcoin cannot escape its current supply area, it risks testing its support below again. If the correction deepens, another major long-term level that CryptoQuant focuses on is the 200-day moving average of close to $70,000.
This pressure has been reflected in Bitcoin's recent decision range of US$76,000 - 77,000, which attracted buying orders several times in September.
US$449 million ETF outflows increase pressure
Institutional capital flows are also weakening. According to data from Farside Investors, the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF lost $46.6 million on September 8,$120.2 million on September 9, and $282.7 million on September 10, with a total net outflow of approximately $449.5 million in three days. This is in sharp contrast to the two-day net inflow of $905 million that occurred just a few days ago.
The next macro catalyst is coming. With the consumer price index (CPI) rising 3.4% year-on-year in August, the market now gives the Fed a 25 basis point interest rate hike next week at about 85%-87%. The 10-year Treasury yield briefly hit 5%, increasing competitive pressure on risky assets such as Bitcoin.
As a result, Bitcoin enters Federal Reserve Week, trapped between two increasingly clear boundaries. Holding the $76,000 - 77,000 range maintains hopes of another breakthrough attempt. However, bulls still need to absorb a supply of 539,000 BTC units between US$77,100 and US$80,200 and recover US$81,700 to confirm a stronger bullish trend. If this level falls below, the risk of further downside to US$70,000 remains.
