比特币站稳76000美元上方，现货需求减弱，ETF流出扩大

Bitcoin stabilizes above US$76,000, as weakening spot demand and outflows of ETF funds sparked market attention

On Friday, Bitcoin prices remained above US$76,000, remaining within key demand ranges after a correction from recent local highs of US$82,261. Despite widespread selling pressure, technical support between $76,000 and $77,500 continued to attract buyers, temporarily curbing further declines.

Mixed signals appear in the spot and derivatives markets

Glassnode's latest data paints a market landscape full of contradictory signals. The company's analysis pointed out that significant selling activity occurred in both the spot market and perpetual contract futures market. The cumulative spot volume margin (CVD) has dropped to minus US$143 million, while the perpetual contract CVD has fallen further to minus US$606 million, reflecting the dominance of sellers in both sectors.

At the same time, the weekly net flow of the U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF turned negative, with an outflow of approximately US$446.7 million. Data covering funds such as BlackRock (IBIT), Fidelity (FBTC) and Gray Scale (GBTC) shows that demand from traditional investment channels is declining. At a time when the market is already depressed, this outflow of funds weakens important buying support.

Still, Glassnode pointed out that continued capital inflows and high overall holder profitability have helped absorb the latest wave of selling. There has been no decisive structural damage, and Bitcoin's overall market structure is still showing range fluctuations rather than a clear bearish trend. Glassnode's recent assessment believes that while selling in the spot and derivatives markets has intensified, continued capital inflows and long-term holders of earnings have helped stabilize Bitcoin prices. The analysis also emphasized that outflows from institutional ETFs are a growing risk factor that currently supports regional strength.

Giant whale holdings decrease, small wallets begin to accumulate

Sanitation's data provides another perspective. Large Bitcoin holders with holdings between 10 and 10,000 BTC reduced their balances by 0.20% in the three weeks when the Bitcoin price was above $80,000. This is in sharp contrast to retail investors, where small wallets holding less than 0.01 BTC increased their balance by 0.09% over the same period.

This divergence between large currency holders and small holders suggests that large investors are becoming cautious as retail participation increases. Sanitation's breakdown of the distribution of different wallet sizes allows investors to more closely monitor changes in sentiment during periods of market uncertainty.

Although this shift does not mean that the giant whale is the main reason for this correction, the trend highlights the importance of market monitoring. If large holders continue to reduce their holdings, it may increase buying pressure.

Spot market demand is weak relative to derivatives market

CryptoQuant注意到，衍生品市场需求上升与现货市场需求减弱之间的差距正在扩大。其30天需求增长指标显示，期货活动重回正值区域，而现货需求滞后，表明整体市场需求仍处于收缩状态。由于杠杆作用的存在，主要由衍生品推动的反弹更容易出现波动，且稳定性不如由稳健现货购买驱动的市场。随着市场等待更强的底层需求信号，这一区别变得越来越重要。

在传统市场依赖复杂经纪商的同时，一场巨大的转变正在发生：华尔街正在向Web3迁移。投资者现在使用平台直接在加密钱包中持有主要美国公司的股份、黄金和白银。通过代币化现实世界资产（RWA），并在几秒钟内自动寻找最佳市场价格，该平台完全消除了中间环节。

技术面聚焦76,000–77,500美元区间

TradingView分析师NouzTrader认为，从82,261美元下跌是一次修正性运动，并指出在76,200至76,500美元附近买家反复做出看涨反应。此前的小时K线在该区域显示出较长的下影线，表明支撑位受到持续防守。

79,500至80,400美元区域标志着下一个关键测试点，随后是82,261美元的局部高点。有效突破这些水平可能将短期动能重新转向买方。相反，日级或四小时级别明确收于76,000美元下方，将预示着结构性破坏，并使72,000至72,800美元的支撑区域进入视野。

TradingView的分析确定76,000至77,500美元是由买家保护的关键区域。若价格上涨突破80,400美元，将为看涨反转提供更强的确认；若收盘低于76,000美元，则会削弱当前结构，并将目光转向早期的支撑位。

市场前景：不确定性中的谨慎乐观

比特币的近期前景取决于当前需求区间能否持续守住。只要买家在76,000至77,500美元附近保持活跃，回升至79,500至80,400美元仍是可行的。然而，持续的现货市场疲软、ETF赎回以及大型持有者的分布均为风险因素。

任何有意义的反弹很可能需要现货需求的改善以及ETF资金流的稳定。目前，比特币的趋势保持中性，结构完整，但随着市场等待更明确的方向确认，买家的信心依然有限。